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Arges Pitesti vs FC Botosani — Liga I 2026

Arges Pitesti
Arges Pitesti
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Botosani
FC Botosani
12/13/2025Liga ILiga I · Round 20Stadionul Nicolae Dobrin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Arges Pitesti49%
×Draw27%
FC Botosani25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arges Pitesti
1.43
FC Botosani
0.93

Arges Pitesti creates 54% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 25 away

creates per match

Arges Pitesti
1.07
FC Botosani
0.93

allows per match

Arges Pitesti
0.92
FC Botosani
1.79

finishing

Arges Pitesti-0.32scores less
FC Botosani-0.17scores less

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arges Pitesti ↓

FC Botosani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Arges Pitesti or draw
75%
Arges Pitesti or FC Botosani
73%
Draw or FC Botosani
51%

Winning margin

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+
24%
FC Botosani wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals
76%
Arges Pitesti 2+ goals
42%
Arges Pitesti 3+ goals
17%
FC Botosani 1+ goals
61%
FC Botosani 2+ goals
24%
FC Botosani 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)
66%
FC Botosani (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arges Pitesti at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

FC Botosani away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.79 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arges Pitesti attack 1.07 + FC Botosani defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.43

FC Botosani attack 0.93 + Arges Pitesti defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Arges Pitesti scores more
49%
level
27%
FC Botosani scores more
25%

Arges Pitesti at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Arges Pitesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99
G. AnestisFC BotosaniFC Botosani · G
8.3

Match Events

46'
Y. Pirvu← R. Moldoveanu
50'
Vadim Rață
60'
Răzvan Creț
63'
I. Radescu← J. Blagaic
69'
G. Cimpanu← Z. Mitrov
69'
E. Lopez← A. Dumiter
79'
T. Seto← C. Tofan
79'
S. Bodisteanu← S. Mailat
87'
F. Tchassem← R. Matos
90'
G. David← M. Bordeianu
90'
Aldair← H. Ongenda

Possession

37%Arges

Shots

9Arges

Pass accuracy

41%Arges

Statistics

ArgesFC
Overview
37%Possession63%
9Total Shots15
0.70Expected Goals (xG)0.86
4Corners6
13Fouls13
Shots
9Total Shots15
2On Target2
3Off Target6
4Blocked7
7Inside Box5
2Outside Box10
Passing
37%Possession63%
218Total Passes397
110Accurate Passes281
50%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls13
1Yellow Cards1
3Offsides2

Liga I: Arges Pitesti 0–0 FC Botosani

Arges Pitesti and FC Botosani drew 0-0 in Liga I on December 13, 2025.

FC Botosani controlled possession (63%) and registered 15 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadionul Nicolae Dobrin in Mioveni.