Arges Pitesti 0–2 FC Botosani: Result & Stats

Arges Pitesti

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

FC Botosani

S. Mailat 55' (pen), 43'

1/29/2023

Liga I · Round 23Stadionul Municipal Nicolae Dobrin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Arges Pitesti49%

×Draw27%

FC Botosani25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arges PitestiExpected goals in this matchFC Botosani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.93

Arges Pitesti

1.43

FC Botosani

0.93

Arges Pitesti creates 54% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 25 away

1.07

creates per match

0.93

0.92

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Arges Pitesti

1.07

FC Botosani

0.93

allows per match

Arges Pitesti

0.92

FC Botosani

1.79

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

Arges Pitesti-0.32scores less

FC Botosani-0.17scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arges Pitesti ↓

FC Botosani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Arges Pitesti or draw

75%

Arges Pitesti or FC Botosani

73%

Draw or FC Botosani

51%

Winning margin

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+

24%

FC Botosani wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals

76%

Arges Pitesti 2+ goals

42%

Arges Pitesti 3+ goals

17%

FC Botosani 1+ goals

61%

FC Botosani 2+ goals

24%

FC Botosani 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)

66%

FC Botosani (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arges Pitesti at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

FC Botosani away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.79 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arges Pitesti attack 1.07 + FC Botosani defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.43

FC Botosani attack 0.93 + Arges Pitesti defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Arges Pitesti scores more

49%

level

27%

FC Botosani scores more

25%

Arges Pitesti at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Arges Pitesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

Andrei Tîrcoveanu

26'

Gabriel Mutombo

43'

S. Mailat↳ A. Mboko-Sambeya

46'

A. Jakoliš← A. Calcan

46'

D. Bertrand← G. Crețu

46'

G. Micle← C. Straton

50'

Costinel Tofan

55'

S. MailatPenalty

58'

Boubacar Hanne← A. Tofan

58'

F. Rizzi← Mimito Biai

64'

64'

70'

80'

83'

86'

90'

Mihai Roman I← A. Ivanov

90+1'

A. Patache← Mihai Roman II

Possession

Shots

Statistics

ArgesFC

Overview

50%Possession50%

9Total Shots18

10Corners3

9Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots18

3On Target5

3Off Target6

3Blocked7

Passing

50%Possession50%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls11

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1

Liga I: Arges Pitesti 0–2 FC Botosani

FC Botosani beat Arges Pitesti 2-0 in Liga I on January 29, 2023.

Goals: S. Mailat (43', 55' pen).

Arges Pitesti controlled possession (50%) and registered 9 shots to 18.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal Nicolae Dobrin in Piteşti.

Arges Pitesti vs FC Botosani — Liga I 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Liga I: Arges Pitesti 0–2 FC Botosani