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FC Basel 1893 vs CSKA Sofia — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FC Basel 1893
FC Basel 1893
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia
7/1/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FC Basel 189332%
×Draw23%
CSKA Sofia45%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Basel 1893
1.47
CSKA Sofia
1.79

CSKA Sofia creates 22% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 6 away

creates per match

FC Basel 1893
1.94
CSKA Sofia
1.33

allows per match

FC Basel 1893
2.25
CSKA Sofia
1.00

finishing

FC Basel 1893+0.00on par
CSKA Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Basel 1893 ↓

CSKA Sofia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

FC Basel 1893 or draw
55%
FC Basel 1893 or CSKA Sofia
77%
Draw or CSKA Sofia
68%

Winning margin

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+
15%
CSKA Sofia wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals
77%
FC Basel 1893 2+ goals
43%
FC Basel 1893 3+ goals
18%
CSKA Sofia 1+ goals
83%
CSKA Sofia 2+ goals
53%
CSKA Sofia 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)
41%
CSKA Sofia (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Basel 1893 at home — creates 1.94, concedes 2.25 · 16 matches

CSKA Sofia away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.94 + CSKA Sofia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.47

CSKA Sofia attack 1.33 + FC Basel 1893 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC Basel 1893 scores more
32%
level
23%
CSKA Sofia scores more
45%

CSKA Sofia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "CSKA Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: FC Basel 1893 0–1 CSKA Sofia

CSKA Sofia beat FC Basel 1893 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 1, 2023.