CSKA Sofia 1–0 FC Basel 1893: Result & Stats

CSKA Sofia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FC Basel 1893

Sergio López 70' (OG)

8/18/2022

UEFA Europa Conference League · Play-offsStadion Vasil Levski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

CSKA Sofia35%

×Draw28%

FC Basel 189336%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSKA SofiaExpected goals in this matchFC Basel 1893

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.17

CSKA Sofia

1.15

FC Basel 1893

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 15 away

1.22

creates per match

1.33

1.00

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

CSKA Sofia

1.22

FC Basel 1893

1.33

allows per match

CSKA Sofia

1.00

FC Basel 1893

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSKA Sofia+0.00on par

FC Basel 1893+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Sofia ↓

FC Basel 1893 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

CSKA Sofia or draw

64%

CSKA Sofia or FC Basel 1893

72%

Draw or FC Basel 1893

65%

Winning margin

CSKA Sofia wins by 2+

15%

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

CSKA Sofia 1+ goals

68%

CSKA Sofia 2+ goals

32%

CSKA Sofia 3+ goals

11%

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals

69%

FC Basel 1893 2+ goals

33%

FC Basel 1893 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

CSKA Sofia (draw refunded)

49%

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Sofia at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Sofia attack 1.22 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.15

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.33 + CSKA Sofia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

CSKA Sofia scores more

35%

level

28%

FC Basel 1893 scores more

36%

FC Basel 1893 at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

J. Mattheij

CSKA Sofia · D

7.9

Match Events

23'

Kasim Adams

30'

Zeki Amdouni

59'

D. Bamba← B. Moreno

68'

L. Tufegdžić← G. Yomov

70'

Sergio LópezOwn goal

73'

80'

81'

82'

83'

Geferson← T. Vion

85'

Sergio López

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CSKAFC

Overview

41%Possession59%

10Total Shots8

7Corners6

9Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots8

3On Target1

4Off Target2

3Blocked5

6Inside Box5

4Outside Box3

Passing

41%Possession59%

293Total Passes445

193Accurate Passes332

66%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls13

2Yellow Cards4

4Offsides3