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FC Basel 1893 vs CSKA Sofia — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

FC Basel 1893
FC Basel 1893
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia
8/25/2022UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Play-offsSt. Jakob-Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

FC Basel 189369%
×Draw19%
CSKA Sofia12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Basel 1893
2.16
CSKA Sofia
0.78

FC Basel 1893 creates 177% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 9 away

creates per match

FC Basel 1893
2.31
CSKA Sofia
0.44

allows per match

FC Basel 1893
1.13
CSKA Sofia
2.00

finishing

FC Basel 1893+0.00on par
CSKA Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Basel 1893 ↓

CSKA Sofia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FC Basel 1893 or draw
88%
FC Basel 1893 or CSKA Sofia
81%
Draw or CSKA Sofia
31%

Winning margin

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+
45%
CSKA Sofia wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals
88%
FC Basel 1893 2+ goals
63%
FC Basel 1893 3+ goals
36%
CSKA Sofia 1+ goals
54%
CSKA Sofia 2+ goals
18%
CSKA Sofia 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)
85%
CSKA Sofia (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Basel 1893 at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

CSKA Sofia away — creates 0.44, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Basel 1893 attack 2.31 + CSKA Sofia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.16

CSKA Sofia attack 0.44 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

FC Basel 1893 scores more
69%
level
19%
CSKA Sofia scores more
12%

FC Basel 1893 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Basel 1893 vs CSKA Sofia

FC Basel 1893 beat CSKA Sofia 2-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 25, 2022.

The match was played at St. Jakob-Park in Basel.