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FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln — Bundesliga 2018

FC Augsburg
FC Augsburg
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
1. FC Köln
1. FC Köln
A. Maier 18'
D. Selke 33'
3/31/2024BundesligaBundesliga · Round 27WWK Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

FC Augsburg41%
×Draw24%
1. FC Köln35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Augsburg
1.59
1. FC Köln
1.44

FC Augsburg creates 10% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 24 away

creates per match

FC Augsburg
1.31
1. FC Köln
1.37

allows per match

FC Augsburg
1.50
1. FC Köln
1.88

finishing

FC Augsburg+0.11scores more
1. FC Köln-0.33scores less

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Augsburg ↓

1. FC Köln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FC Augsburg or draw
65%
FC Augsburg or 1. FC Köln
76%
Draw or 1. FC Köln
59%

Winning margin

FC Augsburg wins by 2+
21%
1. FC Köln wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FC Augsburg 1+ goals
80%
FC Augsburg 2+ goals
47%
FC Augsburg 3+ goals
21%
1. FC Köln 1+ goals
76%
1. FC Köln 2+ goals
42%
1. FC Köln 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

FC Augsburg (draw refunded)
54%
1. FC Köln (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Augsburg at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

1. FC Köln away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Augsburg attack 1.31 + 1. FC Köln defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.59

1. FC Köln attack 1.37 + FC Augsburg defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Augsburg scores more
41%
level
24%
1. FC Köln scores more
35%

FC Augsburg at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Augsburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
A. MaierFC AugsburgFC Augsburg · M
8.3

Match Events

18'
A. Maier↳ R. Vargas
33'
D. Selke↳ S. Adamyan
46'
M. Pedersen← Iago
46'
M. Finkgräfe← L. Paqarada
57'
D. Beljo← E. Rexhbeçaj
61'
Faride Alidou
66'
E. Martel← F. Alidou
66'
L. Maina← F. Kainz
73'
D. Downs← S. Adamyan
79'
A. Engels← F. Jensen
82'
L. Waldschmidt← D. Selke
88'
S. Michel← P. Tietz
88'
Pep Biel← R. Vargas
89'
Linton Maina
89'
Dejan Ljubičić

Possession

56%FC

Shots

25FC

Pass accuracy

52%FC

Statistics

FC1.
Overview
56%Possession44%
25Total Shots12
2.22Expected Goals (xG)1.33
12Corners6
9Fouls13
Shots
25Total Shots12
6On Target2
9Off Target3
10Blocked7
17Inside Box7
8Outside Box5
Passing
56%Possession44%
392Total Passes323
322Accurate Passes242
82%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls13
0Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Match Recap: FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln

FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln drew 1-1 in Bundesliga on March 31, 2024.

Goals: A. Maier (18'), D. Selke (33').

FC Augsburg controlled possession (56%) and registered 25 shots to 12.

The match was played at WWK Arena in Augsburg.