FC Augsburg 1–3 1. FC Köln: Result & Stats

FC Augsburg

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

1. FC Köln

R. Vargas 29'

L. Maina 59'

E. Martel 16'

E. Skhiri 7'

4/8/2023

Bundesliga · Round 27WWK Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

FC Augsburg41%

×Draw24%

1. FC Köln35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC AugsburgExpected goals in this match1. FC Köln

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.44

FC Augsburg

1.59

1. FC Köln

1.44

FC Augsburg creates 10% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 24 away

1.31

creates per match

1.37

1.50

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

FC Augsburg

1.31

1. FC Köln

1.37

allows per match

FC Augsburg

1.50

1. FC Köln

1.88

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

FC Augsburg+0.11scores more

1. FC Köln-0.33scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Augsburg ↓

1. FC Köln →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

FC Augsburg or draw

65%

FC Augsburg or 1. FC Köln

76%

Draw or 1. FC Köln

59%

Winning margin

FC Augsburg wins by 2+

21%

1. FC Köln wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

FC Augsburg 1+ goals

80%

FC Augsburg 2+ goals

47%

FC Augsburg 3+ goals

21%

1. FC Köln 1+ goals

76%

1. FC Köln 2+ goals

42%

1. FC Köln 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

FC Augsburg (draw refunded)

54%

1. FC Köln (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Augsburg at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

1. FC Köln away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Augsburg attack 1.31 + 1. FC Köln defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.59

1. FC Köln attack 1.37 + FC Augsburg defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Augsburg scores more

41%

level

24%

1. FC Köln scores more

35%

FC Augsburg at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Augsburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

J. Chabot

1. FC Köln · D

7.9

Match Events

6'

Ruben Vargas

7'

E. Skhiri↳ J. Chabot

10'

Ellyes SkhiriGoal confirmed

16'

E. Martel↳ K. Schindler

25'

27'

29'

45+2'

46'

D. Ljubičić← B. Schmitz

56'

Arne Engels

59'

L. Maina↳ D. Ljubičić

65'

I. Cardona← A. Maier

65'

D. Čolina← Iago

65'

D. Caligiuri← R. Gumny

66'

71'

72'

79'

79'

J. Thielmann← L. Maina

80'

N. Sarenren Bazee← F. Jensen

84'

Ellyes Skhiri

87'

L. Kilian← K. Schindler

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FC1.

Overview

52%Possession48%

13Total Shots11

0.87Expected Goals (xG)1.74

6Corners1

5Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots11

1On Target6

5Off Target1

7Blocked4

7Inside Box9

6Outside Box2

Passing

52%Possession48%

449Total Passes419

325Accurate Passes303

72%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

5Fouls11

3Yellow Cards4

4Offsides8

Match Recap: FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln

1. FC Köln beat FC Augsburg 3-1 in Bundesliga on April 8, 2023.

Goals: E. Skhiri (7'), E. Martel (16'), R. Vargas (29'), L. Maina (59').

FC Augsburg controlled possession (52%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at WWK Arena in Augsburg.

FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln — Bundesliga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln