1. FC Köln 1–1 FC Augsburg: Result & Stats

1. FC Köln

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

FC Augsburg

L. Maina 16'

P. Tietz 25'

11/4/2023

Bundesliga · Round 10Cologne Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

1. FC Köln48%

×Draw23%

FC Augsburg29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1. FC KölnExpected goals in this matchFC Augsburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.36

1. FC Köln

1.83

FC Augsburg

1.36

1. FC Köln creates 35% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 32 away

1.54

creates per match

1.27

1.46

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

1. FC Köln

1.54

FC Augsburg

1.27

allows per match

1. FC Köln

1.46

FC Augsburg

2.13

+0.02on par

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

1. FC Köln+0.02on par

FC Augsburg-0.18scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Köln ↓

FC Augsburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

1. FC Köln or draw

71%

1. FC Köln or FC Augsburg

77%

Draw or FC Augsburg

52%

Winning margin

1. FC Köln wins by 2+

27%

FC Augsburg wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

1. FC Köln 1+ goals

84%

1. FC Köln 2+ goals

54%

1. FC Köln 3+ goals

28%

FC Augsburg 1+ goals

74%

FC Augsburg 2+ goals

39%

FC Augsburg 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

1. FC Köln (draw refunded)

63%

FC Augsburg (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Köln at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.46 · 25 matches

FC Augsburg away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.13 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Köln attack 1.54 + FC Augsburg defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.83

FC Augsburg attack 1.27 + 1. FC Köln defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

1. FC Köln scores more

48%

level

23%

FC Augsburg scores more

29%

1. FC Köln at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "1. FC Köln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

F. Dahmen

FC Augsburg · G

9.5

Match Events

16'

25'

39'

46'

63'

63'

Iago← M. Pedersen

63'

T. Breithaupt← N. Dorsch

66'

J. Thielmann← M. Uth

66'

D. Selke← S. Tigges

76'

B. Schmitz← R. Carstensen

76'

D. Ljubičić← L. Waldschmidt

77'

A. Engels← F. Jensen

80'

L. Paqarada← D. Heintz

90+7'

90+7'

90+6'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

1.FC

Overview

59%Possession41%

26Total Shots18

2.09Expected Goals (xG)2.61

10Corners2

10Fouls10

Shots

26Total Shots18

11On Target2

9Off Target8

6Blocked8

16Inside Box11

10Outside Box7

Passing

59%Possession41%

507Total Passes370

414Accurate Passes259

82%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves10

Discipline

10Fouls10

1Yellow Cards4

0Offsides1

Bundesliga: 1. FC Köln 1–1 FC Augsburg

1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg drew 1-1 in Bundesliga on November 4, 2023.

Goals: L. Maina (16'), P. Tietz (25').

1. FC Köln controlled possession (59%) and registered 26 shots to 18.

The match was played at Cologne Stadium in Köln.

1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg — Bundesliga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Bundesliga: 1. FC Köln 1–1 FC Augsburg