FC Andorra 0–1 Albacete: Result & Stats

FC Andorra

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Albacete

Jogo 86'

5/1/2026

Segunda División · Round 38Estadi de la FAF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

FC Andorra39%

×Draw25%

Albacete36%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC AndorraExpected goals in this matchAlbacete

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.37

FC Andorra

1.44

Albacete

1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.50

creates per match

1.65

1.09

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

FC Andorra

1.50

Albacete

1.65

allows per match

FC Andorra

1.09

Albacete

1.39

-0.37scores less than expected

finishing

-0.85scores less than expected

finishing

FC Andorra-0.37scores less

Albacete-0.85scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Andorra ↓

Albacete →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

FC Andorra or draw

64%

FC Andorra or Albacete

75%

Draw or Albacete

61%

Winning margin

FC Andorra wins by 2+

18%

Albacete wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

FC Andorra 1+ goals

76%

FC Andorra 2+ goals

42%

FC Andorra 3+ goals

18%

Albacete 1+ goals

75%

Albacete 2+ goals

40%

Albacete 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

FC Andorra (draw refunded)

52%

Albacete (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Andorra at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.09 · 8 matches

Albacete away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.39 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Andorra attack 1.50 + Albacete defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.44

Albacete attack 1.65 + FC Andorra defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Andorra scores more

39%

level

25%

Albacete scores more

36%

FC Andorra at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Andorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

R. Lizoain

Albacete · G

9.3

Match Events

31'

59'

62'

62'

66'

66'

73'

73'

A. Olabarrieta← T. Carrique

80'

Lorenzo← C. Neva

80'

A. Pacheco← V. San Bartolome

82'

T. Le Normand← M. Domenech

86'

89'

90+5'

90+2'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCAlbacete

Overview

78%Possession22%

25Total Shots4

1.16Expected Goals (xG)1.17

6Corners2

10Fouls10

Shots

25Total Shots4

7On Target2

8Off Target2

10Blocked0

16Inside Box2

9Outside Box2

Passing

78%Possession22%

704Total Passes204

634Accurate Passes115

90%Pass Accuracy56%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

10Fouls10

5Yellow Cards1