Albacete 3–1 FC Andorra: Result & Stats

Albacete

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

FC Andorra

Higinio Marín 90+2'

J. Silva 45'

Manu Fuster 32'

Álex Petxa 51'

9/30/2023

Segunda División · Round 8Estadio Carlos Belmonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Albacete41%

×Draw26%

FC Andorra33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlbaceteExpected goals in this matchFC Andorra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.21

Albacete

1.38

FC Andorra

1.21

Albacete creates 14% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.31

creates per match

1.06

1.36

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Albacete

1.31

FC Andorra

1.06

allows per match

Albacete

1.36

FC Andorra

1.44

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

Albacete-0.14scores less

FC Andorra+0.27scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete ↓

FC Andorra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Albacete or draw

67%

Albacete or FC Andorra

74%

Draw or FC Andorra

59%

Winning margin

Albacete wins by 2+

19%

FC Andorra wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Albacete 1+ goals

75%

Albacete 2+ goals

40%

Albacete 3+ goals

16%

FC Andorra 1+ goals

70%

FC Andorra 2+ goals

34%

FC Andorra 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Albacete (draw refunded)

55%

FC Andorra (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.36 · 6 matches

FC Andorra away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.44 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete attack 1.31 + FC Andorra defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.38

FC Andorra attack 1.06 + Albacete defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Albacete scores more

41%

level

26%

FC Andorra scores more

33%

Albacete at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Albacete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Olaetxea

Albacete · D

7.6

Match Events

4'

10'

17'

20'

32'

Manu Fuster↳ Riki Rodríguez

45'

J. Silva↳ Alberto Quiles

46'

Martí Vilà← José Marsà

51'

Álex Petxa↳ Manu Nieto

62'

Higinio Marín← Dani Escriche

62'

A. Scheidler← Manu Nieto

72'

M. Djetei← Alberto Quiles

72'

Jandro Orellana← Sergi Samper

72'

Iván Gil← Álex Petxa

79'

Pablo Moreno← Julen Lobete

81'

Álvaro Rodríguez← Carlos Isaac

81'

Julio Alonso← J. Silva

90+2'

Higinio Marín↳ Olaetxea

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlbaceteFC

Overview

24%Possession76%

12Total Shots11

4Corners3

12Fouls15

Shots

12Total Shots11

7On Target2

5Off Target7

0Blocked2

10Inside Box4

2Outside Box7

Passing

24%Possession76%

189Total Passes635

114Accurate Passes557

60%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2

Match Recap: Albacete vs FC Andorra

Albacete beat FC Andorra 3-1 in Segunda División on September 30, 2023.

Goals: Manu Fuster (32'), J. Silva (45'), Álex Petxa (51'), Higinio Marín (90+2').

FC Andorra controlled possession (76%) and registered 11 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Belmonte in Albacete.

Albacete vs FC Andorra — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Albacete vs FC Andorra