Albacete 1–0 FC Andorra: Result & Stats

Albacete

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FC Andorra

J. Lazo 55'

11/15/2025

Segunda División · Round 14Estadio Carlos Belmonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Albacete41%

×Draw26%

FC Andorra33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlbaceteExpected goals in this matchFC Andorra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.21

Albacete

1.38

FC Andorra

1.21

Albacete creates 14% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.31

creates per match

1.06

1.36

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Albacete

1.31

FC Andorra

1.06

allows per match

Albacete

1.36

FC Andorra

1.44

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

Albacete-0.14scores less

FC Andorra+0.27scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete ↓

FC Andorra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Albacete or draw

67%

Albacete or FC Andorra

74%

Draw or FC Andorra

59%

Winning margin

Albacete wins by 2+

19%

FC Andorra wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Albacete 1+ goals

75%

Albacete 2+ goals

40%

Albacete 3+ goals

16%

FC Andorra 1+ goals

70%

FC Andorra 2+ goals

34%

FC Andorra 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Albacete (draw refunded)

55%

FC Andorra (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.36 · 6 matches

FC Andorra away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.44 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete attack 1.31 + FC Andorra defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.38

FC Andorra attack 1.06 + Albacete defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Albacete scores more

41%

level

26%

FC Andorra scores more

33%

Albacete at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Albacete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

J. Lazo

Albacete · M

8.2

Match Events

4'

Marc Bombardo

46'

D. Alende← M. Bombardo Poyato

55'

J. Lazo

56'

M. Domenech← M. Nieto

56'

Lauti← A. Petxa

66'

V. Valverde← J. Lazo

66'

A. Melendez← Agus Medina

66'

H. Marin← J. Betancor

71'

Capi← R. Rodriguez

73'

A. Uzkudun← T. Le Normand

83'

G. Jastin← S. Molina

87'

Lorenzo← J. Morcillo

90+3'

Capi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlbaceteFC

Overview

33%Possession67%

17Total Shots17

1.90Expected Goals (xG)0.82

4Corners2

9Fouls8

Shots

17Total Shots17

6On Target6

9Off Target7

2Blocked4

11Inside Box5

6Outside Box12

Passing

33%Possession67%

278Total Passes591

215Accurate Passes526

77%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

6Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1