Fatih Karagümrük 1–4 Başakşehir: Result & Stats

Fatih Karagümrük

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Başakşehir

Kone 79'

I. Brnic 65'

M. Crespo 50'

E. Shomurodov 22'

A. Fayzullaev 8'

2/4/2026

Türkiye Kupası · Group Stage - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Fatih Karagümrük43%

×Draw25%

Başakşehir32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fatih KaragümrükExpected goals in this matchBaşakşehir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.31

Fatih Karagümrük

1.57

Başakşehir

1.31

Fatih Karagümrük creates 20% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 12 away

1.89

creates per match

1.42

1.21

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Fatih Karagümrük

1.89

Başakşehir

1.42

allows per match

Fatih Karagümrük

1.21

Başakşehir

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fatih Karagümrük+0.00on par

Başakşehir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fatih Karagümrük ↓

Başakşehir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Fatih Karagümrük or draw

68%

Fatih Karagümrük or Başakşehir

75%

Draw or Başakşehir

57%

Winning margin

Fatih Karagümrük wins by 2+

22%

Başakşehir wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Fatih Karagümrük 1+ goals

79%

Fatih Karagümrük 2+ goals

46%

Fatih Karagümrük 3+ goals

21%

Başakşehir 1+ goals

73%

Başakşehir 2+ goals

38%

Başakşehir 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Fatih Karagümrük (draw refunded)

58%

Başakşehir (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fatih Karagümrük at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Başakşehir away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.89 + Başakşehir defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.57

Başakşehir attack 1.42 + Fatih Karagümrük defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fatih Karagümrük scores more

43%

level

25%

Başakşehir scores more

32%

Fatih Karagümrük at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fatih Karagümrük will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

A. Fayzullaev↳ I. Brnic

22'

E. Shomurodov

26'

M. Crespo← E. Shomurodov

45'

Muhammed Kadıoğlu

46'

R. Esgaio← C. Kurukalip

46'

S. Larsson← M. Kranevitter

46'

B. Ozcan← Serginho

46'

B. Kalayci← S. Babicka

46'

H. Gureler← L. Duarte

50'

M. Crespo

58'

Y. Sari← A. Fayzullaev

58'

F. Ebosele← C. Operi

65'

I. Brnic↳ B. Yildirim

66'

J. Kaluzinski← U. Gunes

71'

D. Biraschi← T. Kalpakli

78'

Festy Ebosele

79'

Kone↳ B. Kalayci

Fatih4-2-3-1

Başakşehir4-2-3-1

91

A

Yildirim

77

⚽A

Brnic

14

⚽

▼

Shomurodo

11

⚽

▼

Fayzullae

20

▼

Gunes

2

Ozdemir

21

▼

Operi

27

Ba

5

▼

6

80

96

33

▼

94

24

32

5

▼

Kranevitt

6

Elmaz

80

▼

Babicka

70

▼

Serginho

20

▼

Kalpakli

15

⚽

Kone

Manager: Onur Korkmaz

46'▲R. Esgaio←▼C. Kurukalip

46'▲S. Larsson←▼M. Kranevitter

46'▲B. Ozcan←▼Serginho

46'▲B. Kalayci←▼S. Babicka

71'▲D. Biraschi←▼T. Kalpakli

Fatih Karagümrük substitutes

99Beklevic4Biraschi47Esgaio50Akdag23Larsson8Ozcan17Sivri72Kalayci88Ahmed

Manager: Nuri Sahin

26'▲M. Crespo←▼E. Shomurodov

46'▲H. Gureler←▼L. Duarte

58'▲Y. Sari←▼A. Fayzullaev

58'▲F. Ebosele←▼C. Operi

66'▲J. Kaluzinski←▼U. Gunes

Başakşehir substitutes

1Babacan3Opoku7Sari8Kemen9Selke18Kaluzinski25Harit36Ebosele15Gureler13Crespo