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Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir — League #203 2026

Fatih Karagümrük
Fatih Karagümrük
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Başakşehir
Başakşehir
1/20/2024League #203League #203 · Round 21Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Fatih Karagümrük45%
×Draw26%
Başakşehir29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fatih Karagümrük
1.44
Başakşehir
1.10

Fatih Karagümrük creates 31% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

Fatih Karagümrük
1.67
Başakşehir
1.20

allows per match

Fatih Karagümrük
1.00
Başakşehir
1.20

finishing

Fatih Karagümrük+0.00on par
Başakşehir+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fatih Karagümrük ↓

Başakşehir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Fatih Karagümrük or draw
71%
Fatih Karagümrük or Başakşehir
74%
Draw or Başakşehir
55%

Winning margin

Fatih Karagümrük wins by 2+
22%
Başakşehir wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fatih Karagümrük 1+ goals
76%
Fatih Karagümrük 2+ goals
42%
Fatih Karagümrük 3+ goals
18%
Başakşehir 1+ goals
67%
Başakşehir 2+ goals
30%
Başakşehir 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Fatih Karagümrük (draw refunded)
61%
Başakşehir (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fatih Karagümrük at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Başakşehir away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.67 + Başakşehir defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.44

Başakşehir attack 1.20 + Fatih Karagümrük defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fatih Karagümrük scores more
45%
level
26%
Başakşehir scores more
29%

Fatih Karagümrük at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fatih Karagümrük will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir

Fatih Karagümrük and Başakşehir drew 1-1 in League #203 on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu in İstanbul.