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Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük — League #203 2026

Başakşehir
Başakşehir
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Fatih Karagümrük
Fatih Karagümrük
1/17/2026League #203League #203 · Round 18Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Başakşehir43%
×Draw22%
Fatih Karagümrük35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Başakşehir
1.90
Fatih Karagümrük
1.70

Başakşehir creates 12% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Başakşehir
2.00
Fatih Karagümrük
1.40

allows per match

Başakşehir
2.00
Fatih Karagümrük
1.80

finishing

Başakşehir+0.00on par
Fatih Karagümrük+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Başakşehir ↓

Fatih Karagümrük →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Başakşehir or draw
65%
Başakşehir or Fatih Karagümrük
78%
Draw or Fatih Karagümrük
57%

Winning margin

Başakşehir wins by 2+
23%
Fatih Karagümrük wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Başakşehir 1+ goals
85%
Başakşehir 2+ goals
56%
Başakşehir 3+ goals
29%
Fatih Karagümrük 1+ goals
82%
Fatih Karagümrük 2+ goals
51%
Fatih Karagümrük 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Başakşehir (draw refunded)
55%
Fatih Karagümrük (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Başakşehir at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

Fatih Karagümrük away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Başakşehir attack 2.00 + Fatih Karagümrük defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.40 + Başakşehir defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Başakşehir scores more
43%
level
22%
Fatih Karagümrük scores more
35%

Başakşehir at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Başakşehir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük

Başakşehir beat Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 in League #203 on January 17, 2026.

The match was played at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium in Istanbul.