Fatih Karagümrük 1–1 Başakşehir: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fatih KaragümrükExpected goals in this matchBaşakşehir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.38

Fatih Karagümrük

1.52

Başakşehir

1.38

Fatih Karagümrük creates 10% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

1.89

creates per match

1.54

1.21

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Fatih Karagümrük

1.89

Başakşehir

1.54

allows per match

Fatih Karagümrük

1.21

Başakşehir

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fatih Karagümrük+0.00on par

Başakşehir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fatih Karagümrük ↓

Başakşehir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Fatih Karagümrük or draw

65%

Fatih Karagümrük or Başakşehir

75%

Draw or Başakşehir

59%

Winning margin

Fatih Karagümrük wins by 2+

20%

Başakşehir wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Fatih Karagümrük 1+ goals

78%

Fatih Karagümrük 2+ goals

45%

Fatih Karagümrük 3+ goals

20%

Başakşehir 1+ goals

75%

Başakşehir 2+ goals

40%

Başakşehir 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Fatih Karagümrük (draw refunded)

54%

Başakşehir (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fatih Karagümrük at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Başakşehir away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.89 + Başakşehir defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.52

Başakşehir attack 1.54 + Fatih Karagümrük defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fatih Karagümrük scores more

41%

level

25%

Başakşehir scores more

35%

Fatih Karagümrük at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fatih Karagümrük will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

Adnan Ugur

38'

S. Gürler← M. Chouiar

46'

O. Shukurov← A. Uğur

61'

P. Keny← S. Okaka

61'

B. Özcan← M. Özil

63'

Ibrahim Drešević

65'

E. Colley← B. Kapacak

65'

R. Baniya← S. Dursun

67'

D. Türüç← P. Szysz

67'

Júnior Caiçara← Ş. Özbayraklı

68'

M. Diagne

71'

L. MercanOwn goal

78'

C. Kazim-Richards← M. Diagne

86'

M. Ozdoev← L. Nicholas

98'

Rayyan Baniya

101'

M. Ricci← A. Bertolacci

114'

Ö. Şahiner← D. Aleksić

115'

K. Frei↳ E. Colley

119'

Davide Biraschi

120'

Münir Levent Mercan

120+1'

D. TürüçPenalty

120+1'

D. TürüçPenalty

120+2'

C. Kazim-RichardsPenalty

120+3'

Lucas LimaPenalty

120+4'

I. DreševićPenalty

120+5'

B. ÖzcanPenalty

120+6'

D. BiraschiMissed penalty

120+7'

Y. NdayishimiyePenalty

120+8'

O. ShukurovPenalty

120+9'

Júnior CaiçaraPenalty

Statistics

FatihBaşakşehir

Overview

5Corners5

Türkiye Kupası: Fatih Karagümrük 1–1 Başakşehir

Fatih Karagümrük and Başakşehir drew 1-1 in Türkiye Kupası on January 18, 2023.

Goals: M. Diagne (68'), L. Mercan (71' o.g.), K. Frei (115'), D. Türüç (120+1' pen, 120+1' pen), C. Kazim-Richards (120+2' pen), Lucas Lima (120+3' pen), I. Drešević (120+4' pen), B. Özcan (120+5' pen), Y. Ndayishimiye (120+7' pen), O. Shukurov (120+8' pen), Júnior Caiçara (120+9' pen).

The match was played at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu in İstanbul.

Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

Türkiye Kupası: Fatih Karagümrük 1–1 Başakşehir