Farul Constanta 0–0 Arges Pitesti: Result & Stats

Farul Constanta

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Arges Pitesti

10/17/2025

Liga I · Round 13Central Stadium Hagi Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Farul Constanta40%

×Draw26%

Arges Pitesti34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Farul ConstantaExpected goals in this matchArges Pitesti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.30

Farul Constanta

1.42

Arges Pitesti

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 13 away

1.62

creates per match

0.94

1.67

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Farul Constanta

1.62

Arges Pitesti

0.94

allows per match

Farul Constanta

1.67

Arges Pitesti

1.22

+0.07on par

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Farul Constanta+0.07on par

Arges Pitesti+0.06on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farul Constanta ↓

Arges Pitesti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Farul Constanta or draw

66%

Farul Constanta or Arges Pitesti

74%

Draw or Arges Pitesti

60%

Winning margin

Farul Constanta wins by 2+

19%

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Farul Constanta 1+ goals

76%

Farul Constanta 2+ goals

41%

Farul Constanta 3+ goals

17%

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals

73%

Arges Pitesti 2+ goals

37%

Arges Pitesti 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Farul Constanta (draw refunded)

54%

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farul Constanta at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.67 · 29 matches

Arges Pitesti away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.22 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farul Constanta attack 1.62 + Arges Pitesti defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.42

Arges Pitesti attack 0.94 + Farul Constanta defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Farul Constanta scores more

40%

level

26%

Arges Pitesti scores more

34%

Farul Constanta at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Farul Constanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

Ramalho

Farul Constanta · M

7.9

Match Events

38'

Rober Sierra

45+5'

Rober SierraPenalty cancelled

46'

E. Radaslavescu← D. Maftei

46'

A. Bettaieb← Caio Ferreira

46'

F. Borta← D. Oancea

49'

Bogdan Țîru

62'

J. Vojtus← A. Isfan

74'

A. Seruca← B. Nikolov

74'

I. Cojocaru← N. Grigoryan

74'

T. Seto← V. Rata

79'

Y. Pirvu← R. Moldoveanu

84'

Ionuț Larie

84'

G. Iancu← Ramalho

87'

K. Brobbey← R. Matos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FarulArges

Overview

56%Possession44%

11Total Shots11

1.03Expected Goals (xG)1.17

3Corners3

18Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots11

1On Target3

9Off Target7

1Blocked1

5Inside Box7

6Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

414Total Passes333

306Accurate Passes232

74%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

18Fouls14

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1