Farul Constanta vs Arges Pitesti — Liga I 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 13+ matches
Farul Constanta40%
Arges Pitesti34%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 29 home / 13 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Farul Constanta ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Farul Constanta at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.67 · 29 matches
Arges Pitesti away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.22 · 13 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Farul Constanta attack 1.62 + Arges Pitesti defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.42
Arges Pitesti attack 0.94 + Farul Constanta defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.30
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Farul Constanta at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Farul Constanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Farul Constanta substitutes
Arges Pitesti substitutes
CFR 1907 Cluj
FCSB
Universitatea Craiova
FC Astra Giurgiu
Viitorul Constanta
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
FC Botosani
Politehnica Iasi
Dinamo Bucuresti
AFC Hermannstadt
GAZ Metan Medias
Dunarea Calarasi
FC Voluntari
ConcordiaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Statistics
Farul Constanta host Arges Pitesti on Saturday, 14 May 2022 at 13:30. The match is part of the Liga I 2026/2027 season.
Liga I: Farul Constanta 1–0 Arges Pitesti
Farul Constanta beat Arges Pitesti 1-0 in Liga I on May 14, 2022.
Goals: I. Larie (34').
Farul Constanta controlled possession (61%) and registered 11 shots to 8.
The match was played at Stadionul Central in Ovidiu.