Arges Pitesti 1–0 Farul Constanta: Result & Stats

Arges Pitesti

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Farul Constanta

R. Matos 51'

2/22/2026

Liga I · Round 28Stadionul Nicolae Dobrin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Arges Pitesti43%

×Draw27%

Farul Constanta30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arges PitestiExpected goals in this matchFarul Constanta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.08

Arges Pitesti

1.36

Farul Constanta

1.08

Arges Pitesti creates 26% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 25 away

1.07

creates per match

1.24

0.92

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Arges Pitesti

1.07

Farul Constanta

1.24

allows per match

Arges Pitesti

0.92

Farul Constanta

1.65

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

Arges Pitesti-0.32scores less

Farul Constanta-0.16scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arges Pitesti ↓

Farul Constanta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Arges Pitesti or draw

70%

Arges Pitesti or Farul Constanta

73%

Draw or Farul Constanta

57%

Winning margin

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+

20%

Farul Constanta wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals

74%

Arges Pitesti 2+ goals

39%

Arges Pitesti 3+ goals

16%

Farul Constanta 1+ goals

66%

Farul Constanta 2+ goals

29%

Farul Constanta 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)

59%

Farul Constanta (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arges Pitesti at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Farul Constanta away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.65 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arges Pitesti attack 1.07 + Farul Constanta defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.36

Farul Constanta attack 1.24 + Arges Pitesti defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Arges Pitesti scores more

43%

level

27%

Farul Constanta scores more

30%

Arges Pitesti at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Arges Pitesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

M. Tudose

Arges Pitesti · D

7.6

Match Events

12'

Mario Tudose

12'

Gustavo Marins

46'

R. Moldoveanu← C. Micovschi

46'

I. Radescu← Y. Pirvu

46'

R. Tanasa← E. Radaslavescu

51'

R. Matos↳ M. Tudose

54'

Ricardo MatosGoal confirmed

62'

N. Grigoryan← L. Pellegrini

72'

J. Markovic← A. Isfan

72'

Ramalho← B. Tiru

77'

M. Briceag← A. Bettaieb

79'

T. Seto← V. Rata

85'

K. Brobbey← R. Matos

86'

I. Doicaru← I. Vina

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArgesFarul

Overview

42%Possession58%

13Total Shots4

0.97Expected Goals (xG)0.32

8Corners1

9Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots4

3On Target1

8Off Target1

2Blocked2

7Inside Box1

6Outside Box3

Passing

42%Possession58%

296Total Passes415

196Accurate Passes323

66%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides2