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Falkenbergs FF vs Djurgardens IF — Allsvenskan 2018

Falkenbergs FF
Falkenbergs FF
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Djurgardens IF
Djurgardens IF
5/15/2019AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 9Falcon Alkoholfri Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Falkenbergs FF26%
×Draw26%
Djurgardens IF48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Falkenbergs FF
1.04
Djurgardens IF
1.50

Djurgardens IF creates 44% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 124 away

creates per match

Falkenbergs FF
1.00
Djurgardens IF
1.40

allows per match

Falkenbergs FF
1.60
Djurgardens IF
1.07

finishing

Falkenbergs FF+0.00on par
Djurgardens IF+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falkenbergs FF ↓

Djurgardens IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Falkenbergs FF or draw
52%
Falkenbergs FF or Djurgardens IF
74%
Draw or Djurgardens IF
74%

Winning margin

Falkenbergs FF wins by 2+
10%
Djurgardens IF wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Falkenbergs FF 1+ goals
65%
Falkenbergs FF 2+ goals
28%
Falkenbergs FF 3+ goals
9%
Djurgardens IF 1+ goals
78%
Djurgardens IF 2+ goals
44%
Djurgardens IF 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Falkenbergs FF (draw refunded)
35%
Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Falkenbergs FF at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 30 matches

Djurgardens IF away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.07 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Falkenbergs FF attack 1.00 + Djurgardens IF defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Djurgardens IF attack 1.40 + Falkenbergs FF defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Falkenbergs FF scores more
26%
level
26%
Djurgardens IF scores more
48%

Djurgardens IF at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Djurgardens IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: Falkenbergs FF 0–3 Djurgardens IF

Djurgardens IF beat Falkenbergs FF 3-0 in Allsvenskan on May 15, 2019.

The match was played at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena in Falkenberg.