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Djurgardens IF vs Falkenbergs FF — Svenska Cupen 2019

Djurgardens IF
Djurgardens IF
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Falkenbergs FF
Falkenbergs FF
2/21/2026Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 13Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Djurgardens IF37%
×Draw22%
Falkenbergs FF42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djurgardens IF
1.80
Falkenbergs FF
1.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 14 away

creates per match

Djurgardens IF
2.32
Falkenbergs FF
3.00

allows per match

Djurgardens IF
0.84
Falkenbergs FF
1.29

finishing

Djurgardens IF+0.00on par
Falkenbergs FF+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djurgardens IF ↓

Falkenbergs FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Djurgardens IF or draw
58%
Djurgardens IF or Falkenbergs FF
78%
Draw or Falkenbergs FF
63%

Winning margin

Djurgardens IF wins by 2+
19%
Falkenbergs FF wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Djurgardens IF 1+ goals
83%
Djurgardens IF 2+ goals
54%
Djurgardens IF 3+ goals
27%
Falkenbergs FF 1+ goals
85%
Falkenbergs FF 2+ goals
57%
Falkenbergs FF 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)
47%
Falkenbergs FF (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djurgardens IF at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Falkenbergs FF away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djurgardens IF attack 2.32 + Falkenbergs FF defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.80

Falkenbergs FF attack 3.00 + Djurgardens IF defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Djurgardens IF scores more
37%
level
22%
Falkenbergs FF scores more
42%

Falkenbergs FF at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Falkenbergs FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Djurgardens IF 0–2 Falkenbergs FF

Falkenbergs FF beat Djurgardens IF 2-0 in Svenska Cupen on February 21, 2026.

The match was played at 3Arena in Stockholm.