Djurgardens IF 1–0 Falkenbergs FF: Result & Stats

Djurgardens IF

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Falkenbergs FF

7/15/2020

Allsvenskan · Round 8Tele2 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Djurgardens IF63%

×Draw21%

Falkenbergs FF17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Djurgardens IFExpected goals in this matchFalkenbergs FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

0.95

Djurgardens IF

2.05

Falkenbergs FF

0.95

Djurgardens IF creates 116% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 30 away

1.83

creates per match

0.93

0.97

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Djurgardens IF

1.83

Falkenbergs FF

0.93

allows per match

Djurgardens IF

0.97

Falkenbergs FF

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Djurgardens IF+0.00on par

Falkenbergs FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djurgardens IF ↓

Falkenbergs FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Djurgardens IF or draw

83%

Djurgardens IF or Falkenbergs FF

79%

Draw or Falkenbergs FF

37%

Winning margin

Djurgardens IF wins by 2+

39%

Falkenbergs FF wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Djurgardens IF 1+ goals

87%

Djurgardens IF 2+ goals

61%

Djurgardens IF 3+ goals

33%

Falkenbergs FF 1+ goals

61%

Falkenbergs FF 2+ goals

25%

Falkenbergs FF 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)

79%

Falkenbergs FF (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djurgardens IF at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.97 · 127 matches

Falkenbergs FF away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.27 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djurgardens IF attack 1.83 + Falkenbergs FF defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.05

Falkenbergs FF attack 0.93 + Djurgardens IF defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Djurgardens IF scores more

63%

level

21%

Falkenbergs FF scores more

17%

Djurgardens IF at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Djurgardens IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff