Fakel 1–0 Arsenal Tula: Result & Stats

Fakel

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Arsenal Tula

9/8/2025

First League · Round 9Fakel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Fakel43%

×Draw30%

Arsenal Tula26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FakelExpected goals in this matchArsenal Tula

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.83

Fakel

1.15

Arsenal Tula

0.83

Fakel creates 39% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 68 away

1.16

creates per match

0.94

0.72

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Fakel

1.16

Arsenal Tula

0.94

allows per match

Fakel

0.72

Arsenal Tula

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fakel+0.00on par

Arsenal Tula+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel ↓

Arsenal Tula →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Fakel or draw

74%

Fakel or Arsenal Tula

70%

Draw or Arsenal Tula

57%

Winning margin

Fakel wins by 2+

18%

Arsenal Tula wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Fakel 1+ goals

68%

Fakel 2+ goals

32%

Fakel 3+ goals

11%

Arsenal Tula 1+ goals

56%

Arsenal Tula 2+ goals

20%

Arsenal Tula 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Fakel (draw refunded)

62%

Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.72 · 90 matches

Arsenal Tula away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.15 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel attack 1.16 + Arsenal Tula defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Arsenal Tula attack 0.94 + Fakel defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fakel scores more

43%

level

30%

Arsenal Tula scores more

26%

Fakel at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fakel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff