Arsenal Tula 1–2 Fakel: Result & Stats

Arsenal Tula

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Fakel

4/5/2026

First League · Round 27Stadion Arsenal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Arsenal Tula40%

×Draw28%

Fakel32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arsenal TulaExpected goals in this matchFakel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.09

Arsenal Tula

1.24

Fakel

1.09

Arsenal Tula creates 14% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 89 away

1.17

creates per match

1.20

0.99

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Arsenal Tula

1.17

Fakel

1.20

allows per match

Arsenal Tula

0.99

Fakel

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arsenal Tula+0.00on par

Fakel+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula ↓

Fakel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula or draw

68%

Arsenal Tula or Fakel

72%

Draw or Fakel

60%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula wins by 2+

17%

Fakel wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula 1+ goals

71%

Arsenal Tula 2+ goals

35%

Arsenal Tula 3+ goals

13%

Fakel 1+ goals

66%

Fakel 2+ goals

30%

Fakel 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)

55%

Fakel (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.99 · 69 matches

Fakel away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.31 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula attack 1.17 + Fakel defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.24

Fakel attack 1.20 + Arsenal Tula defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Arsenal Tula scores more

40%

level

28%

Fakel scores more

32%

Arsenal Tula at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Arsenal Tula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff