Fakel Voronezh 1–2 Arsenal Tula: Result & Stats

Fakel Voronezh

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Arsenal Tula

9/25/2019

Cup · 16th FinalsCentral'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Fakel Voronezh17%

×Draw23%

Arsenal Tula60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fakel VoronezhExpected goals in this matchArsenal Tula

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.85

1.83

Fakel Voronezh

0.85

Arsenal Tula

1.83

Arsenal Tula creates 115% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

0.71

creates per match

2.10

1.57

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Fakel Voronezh

0.71

Arsenal Tula

2.10

allows per match

Fakel Voronezh

1.57

Arsenal Tula

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par

Arsenal Tula+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel Voronezh ↓

Arsenal Tula →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–113%

0–212%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Fakel Voronezh or draw

40%

Fakel Voronezh or Arsenal Tula

77%

Draw or Arsenal Tula

83%

Winning margin

Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+

5%

Arsenal Tula wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals

57%

Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals

21%

Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals

5%

Arsenal Tula 1+ goals

84%

Arsenal Tula 2+ goals

54%

Arsenal Tula 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)

22%

Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel Voronezh at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

Arsenal Tula away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel Voronezh attack 0.71 + Arsenal Tula defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.85

Arsenal Tula attack 2.10 + Fakel Voronezh defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Fakel Voronezh scores more

17%

level

23%

Arsenal Tula scores more

60%

Arsenal Tula at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Arsenal Tula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff