Fagiano Okayama 1–1 Yokohama FC: Result & Stats

Fagiano Okayama

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Yokohama FC

3/20/2022

J2 League · Round 5City Light Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Fagiano Okayama34%

×Draw28%

Yokohama FC38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fagiano OkayamaExpected goals in this matchYokohama FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.19

Fagiano Okayama

1.11

Yokohama FC

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 147 home / 86 away

1.22

creates per match

1.41

0.96

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Fagiano Okayama

1.22

Yokohama FC

1.41

allows per match

Fagiano Okayama

0.96

Yokohama FC

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fagiano Okayama+0.00on par

Yokohama FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fagiano Okayama ↓

Yokohama FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Fagiano Okayama or draw

62%

Fagiano Okayama or Yokohama FC

72%

Draw or Yokohama FC

66%

Winning margin

Fagiano Okayama wins by 2+

14%

Yokohama FC wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Fagiano Okayama 1+ goals

67%

Fagiano Okayama 2+ goals

30%

Fagiano Okayama 3+ goals

10%

Yokohama FC 1+ goals

70%

Yokohama FC 2+ goals

33%

Yokohama FC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Fagiano Okayama (draw refunded)

47%

Yokohama FC (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fagiano Okayama at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.96 · 147 matches

Yokohama FC away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fagiano Okayama attack 1.22 + Yokohama FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Yokohama FC attack 1.41 + Fagiano Okayama defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Fagiano Okayama scores more

34%

level

28%

Yokohama FC scores more

38%

Yokohama FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Yokohama FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff