Eyüpspor 2–1 Alanyaspor: Result & Stats

Eyüpspor

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Alanyaspor

P. O. Ampem 68'

S. Seslar 1'

F. Hadergjonaj 67' (pen)

8/25/2025

League #203 · Round 3Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Eyüpspor33%

×Draw26%

Alanyaspor42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EyüpsporExpected goals in this matchAlanyaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.45

Eyüpspor

1.25

Alanyaspor

1.45

Alanyaspor creates 16% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

1.20

creates per match

0.93

1.96

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Eyüpspor

1.20

Alanyaspor

0.93

allows per match

Eyüpspor

1.96

Alanyaspor

1.29

-0.09on par

finishing

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

Eyüpspor-0.09on par

Alanyaspor+0.15scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eyüpspor ↓

Alanyaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Eyüpspor or draw

58%

Eyüpspor or Alanyaspor

74%

Draw or Alanyaspor

67%

Winning margin

Eyüpspor wins by 2+

14%

Alanyaspor wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Eyüpspor 1+ goals

71%

Eyüpspor 2+ goals

36%

Eyüpspor 3+ goals

13%

Alanyaspor 1+ goals

77%

Alanyaspor 2+ goals

42%

Alanyaspor 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Eyüpspor (draw refunded)

44%

Alanyaspor (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eyüpspor at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.96 · 9 matches

Alanyaspor away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.29 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eyüpspor attack 1.20 + Alanyaspor defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Alanyaspor attack 0.93 + Eyüpspor defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Eyüpspor scores more

33%

level

26%

Alanyaspor scores more

42%

Alanyaspor at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Alanyaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Marcos Felipe

Eyüpspor · G

8.2

Match Events

-5'

1'

20'

22'

25'

59'

P. O. Ampem← S. Gurler

59'

M. Kabasakal← Y. Kayan

65'

Andraž ŠporarPenalty confirmed

67'

F. HadergjonajPenalty

68'

Bruno Viana← F. Aliti

68'

I. Kaya← G. Yalcin

68'

P. O. Ampem↳ Lucas Calegari

72'

Prince Ampem

73'

E. Akbaba← S. Seslar

82'

U. Ogundu← Y. Ozdemir

82'

N. Janvier← Hwang Ui-Jo

83'

I. Celik← G. Makouta

88'

U. Bozok← D. Dragus

88'

I. Taskin← K. Demirbay

90+8'

Umut Bozok

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EyüpsporAlanyaspor

Overview

44%Possession56%

5Total Shots12

0.52Expected Goals (xG)1.46

0Corners5

19Fouls18

Shots

5Total Shots12

3On Target2

2Off Target6

0Blocked4

4Inside Box8

1Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

378Total Passes476

312Accurate Passes401

83%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

-1.02Goals Prevented-1.02

Discipline

19Fouls18

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2