Alanyaspor 1–3 Eyüpspor: Result & Stats

Alanyaspor

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Eyüpspor

G. Yalcin 3'

P. O. Ampem 90'

C. Raux Yao 86'

T. Ulvan 49'

1/31/2026

League #203 · Round 20GAİN Park Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Alanyaspor51%

×Draw23%

Eyüpspor25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlanyasporExpected goals in this matchEyüpspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.20

Alanyaspor

1.80

Eyüpspor

1.20

Alanyaspor creates 50% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

1.15

creates per match

1.15

1.25

allows per match

2.46

creates per match

Alanyaspor

1.15

Eyüpspor

1.15

allows per match

Alanyaspor

1.25

Eyüpspor

2.46

+0.05on par

finishing

+0.48scores more than expected

finishing

Alanyaspor+0.05on par

Eyüpspor+0.48scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alanyaspor ↓

Eyüpspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Alanyaspor or draw

75%

Alanyaspor or Eyüpspor

77%

Draw or Eyüpspor

49%

Winning margin

Alanyaspor wins by 2+

28%

Eyüpspor wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Alanyaspor 1+ goals

83%

Alanyaspor 2+ goals

54%

Alanyaspor 3+ goals

27%

Eyüpspor 1+ goals

70%

Eyüpspor 2+ goals

34%

Eyüpspor 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Alanyaspor (draw refunded)

67%

Eyüpspor (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alanyaspor at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.25 · 10 matches

Eyüpspor away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.46 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alanyaspor attack 1.15 + Eyüpspor defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 1.80

Eyüpspor attack 1.15 + Alanyaspor defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Alanyaspor scores more

51%

level

23%

Eyüpspor scores more

25%

Alanyaspor at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Alanyaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

T. Ulvan

Eyüpspor · D

8.2

Match Events

3'

G. Yalcin↳ F. Hadergjonaj

36'

48'

49'

65'

66'

M. Legowski← E. Akbaba

68'

Fidan Aliti

72'

S. Mounie← G. Yalcin

75'

P. O. Ampem← M. Altunbas

80'

F. Aksoy← N. Janvier

80'

M. Elia← Hwang Ui-Jo

84'

C. Raux Yao← I. Taskin

84'

D. Radu← L. Pintor

86'

C. Raux Yao

90'

P. O. Ampem↳ J. Onguene

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlanyasporEyüpspor

Overview

42%Possession58%

17Total Shots13

1.54Expected Goals (xG)1.13

2Corners3

10Fouls6

Shots

17Total Shots13

6On Target6

7Off Target6

4Blocked1

10Inside Box8

7Outside Box5

Passing

42%Possession58%

365Total Passes526

304Accurate Passes461

83%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

0.90Goals Prevented0.90

Discipline

10Fouls6

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1