Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor — League #203 2026

Eyüpspor
Eyüpspor
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Alanyaspor
Alanyaspor
M. Thiam 75'
E. Akbaba 65' (pen)
R. Yalçın 45+2'
1/19/2025League #203League #203 · Round 20Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Eyüpspor38%
×Draw25%
Alanyaspor36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eyüpspor
1.43
Alanyaspor
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 13 away

creates per match

Eyüpspor
1.41
Alanyaspor
0.92

allows per match

Eyüpspor
1.85
Alanyaspor
1.45

finishing

Eyüpspor-0.11scores less
Alanyaspor+0.08on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eyüpspor ↓

Alanyaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Eyüpspor or draw
64%
Eyüpspor or Alanyaspor
75%
Draw or Alanyaspor
62%

Winning margin

Eyüpspor wins by 2+
18%
Alanyaspor wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Eyüpspor 1+ goals
76%
Eyüpspor 2+ goals
42%
Eyüpspor 3+ goals
17%
Alanyaspor 1+ goals
75%
Alanyaspor 2+ goals
40%
Alanyaspor 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Eyüpspor (draw refunded)
51%
Alanyaspor (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eyüpspor at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.85 · 10 matches

Alanyaspor away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.45 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eyüpspor attack 1.41 + Alanyaspor defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.43

Alanyaspor attack 0.92 + Eyüpspor defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Eyüpspor scores more
38%
level
25%
Alanyaspor scores more
36%

Eyüpspor at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Eyüpspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
R. YalçınEyüpsporEyüpspor · D
8.2

Match Events

25'
Mame ThiamGoal cancelled
30'
Mame Thiam
33'
Gaius Makouta
45+2'
R. Yalçın
50'
Efecan Karaca
60'
Hwang Ui-Jo← N. Janvier
65'
E. AkbabaPenalty
75'
M. Thiam↳ A. Kutucu
77'
H. Akbunar← E. Akbaba
77'
E. Mor← M. Thiam
77'
J. Balkovec← E. Karaca
78'
Rony Lopes← Loide Augusto
85'
Y. Kayan← T. Bingöl
87'
S. Dursun← Y. Özdemir
87'
F. Aksoy← G. Makouta

Possession

61%Eyüpspor

Shots

17Eyüpspor

Pass accuracy

53%Eyüpspor

Statistics

EyüpsporAlanyaspor
Overview
61%Possession39%
17Total Shots11
3.32Expected Goals (xG)0.83
11Corners5
13Fouls13
Shots
17Total Shots11
9On Target2
4Off Target8
4Blocked1
14Inside Box5
3Outside Box6
Passing
61%Possession39%
435Total Passes272
363Accurate Passes201
83%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
1.32Goals Prevented1.32
Discipline
13Fouls13
1Yellow Cards2
3Offsides2

Match Recap: Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor

Eyüpspor beat Alanyaspor 3-0 in League #203 on January 19, 2025.

Goals: R. Yalçın (45+2'), E. Akbaba (65' pen), M. Thiam (75').

Eyüpspor controlled possession (61%) and registered 17 shots to 11.

The match was played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in İstanbul.