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Exeter City vs Port Vale — League Two 2025

Exeter City
Exeter City
Preview
15:00
Port Vale
Port Vale
2/20/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 32St James Park
Big match
44%
Port Vale
model favours
33%23%44%

Port Vale score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Exeter City33%
×Draw23%
Port Vale44%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Exeter City
1.46
Port Vale
1.71

Port Vale creates 17% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 24 away

creates per match

Exeter City
1.67
Port Vale
1.08

allows per match

Exeter City
2.33
Port Vale
1.25

finishing

Exeter City+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw
56%
Exeter City or Port Vale
77%
Draw or Port Vale
67%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+
15%
Port Vale wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals
77%
Exeter City 2+ goals
43%
Exeter City 3+ goals
18%
Port Vale 1+ goals
82%
Port Vale 2+ goals
51%
Port Vale 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)
43%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.25 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.67 + Port Vale defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.46

Port Vale attack 1.08 + Exeter City defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Exeter City scores more
33%
level
23%
Port Vale scores more
44%

Port Vale at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 18% of Port Vale’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
City
LDDDW
Vale
WLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Exeter City host Port Vale

February 20, 2027: Exeter City take on Port Vale in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Exeter City host Port Vale at St James Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.