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Exeter City vs Port Vale — League One 2018

Exeter City
Exeter City
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Port Vale
Port Vale
8/6/2022League OneLeague One · Round 2St James Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Exeter City48%
×Draw26%
Port Vale26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Exeter City
1.49
Port Vale
1.01

Exeter City creates 48% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 72 away

creates per match

Exeter City
1.23
Port Vale
0.82

allows per match

Exeter City
1.21
Port Vale
1.75

finishing

Exeter City+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw
74%
Exeter City or Port Vale
74%
Draw or Port Vale
52%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+
24%
Port Vale wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals
77%
Exeter City 2+ goals
44%
Exeter City 3+ goals
19%
Port Vale 1+ goals
64%
Port Vale 2+ goals
27%
Port Vale 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)
65%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.21 · 92 matches

Port Vale away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.75 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.23 + Port Vale defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.49

Port Vale attack 0.82 + Exeter City defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Exeter City scores more
48%
level
26%
Port Vale scores more
26%

Exeter City at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Exeter City 4–0 Port Vale

Exeter City beat Port Vale 4-0 in League One on August 6, 2022.

The match was played at St James Park in Exeter, Devon.