Exeter City 0–1 Port Vale: Result & Stats

Exeter City

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Port Vale

5/7/2022

League Two · Round 46St James Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Exeter City44%

×Draw27%

Port Vale29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Exeter CityExpected goals in this matchPort Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.07

Exeter City

1.38

Port Vale

1.07

Exeter City creates 29% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 118 away

1.58

creates per match

1.16

0.98

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Exeter City

1.58

Port Vale

1.16

allows per match

Exeter City

0.98

Port Vale

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Exeter City+0.00on par

Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Port Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw

71%

Exeter City or Port Vale

73%

Draw or Port Vale

56%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+

21%

Port Vale wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals

75%

Exeter City 2+ goals

40%

Exeter City 3+ goals

16%

Port Vale 1+ goals

66%

Port Vale 2+ goals

29%

Port Vale 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)

60%

Port Vale (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.98 · 90 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.17 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.58 + Port Vale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.38

Port Vale attack 1.16 + Exeter City defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Exeter City scores more

44%

level

27%

Port Vale scores more

29%

Exeter City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff