Exeter City 2–0 Colchester: Result & Stats

Exeter City

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Colchester

O. Zanzala 63'

J. Sparkes 32'

4/15/2022

League Two · Round 42St James Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Exeter City48%

×Draw27%

Colchester25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Exeter CityExpected goals in this matchColchester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.96

Exeter City

1.43

Colchester

0.96

Exeter City creates 49% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 159 away

1.53

creates per match

0.96

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Exeter City

1.53

Colchester

0.96

allows per match

Exeter City

0.96

Colchester

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Exeter City+0.00on par

Colchester+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Colchester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw

75%

Exeter City or Colchester

73%

Draw or Colchester

52%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+

23%

Colchester wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals

76%

Exeter City 2+ goals

42%

Exeter City 3+ goals

17%

Colchester 1+ goals

62%

Colchester 2+ goals

25%

Colchester 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)

65%

Colchester (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.96 · 98 matches

Colchester away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.33 · 159 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.53 + Colchester defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.43

Colchester attack 0.96 + Exeter City defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Exeter City scores more

48%

level

27%

Colchester scores more

25%

Exeter City at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

J. Brown

Exeter City · F

7.7

Match Events

32'

63'

64'

64'

66'

75'

C. Diabate← A. Hartridge

75'

T. Wright← N. Chilvers

77'

P. Amond← O. Zanzala

86'

C. Rowe← M. Jay

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ExeterColchester

Overview

60%Possession40%

17Total Shots1

7Corners0

9Fouls9

Shots

17Total Shots1

8On Target0

6Off Target0

3Blocked1

14Inside Box0

3Outside Box1

Passing

60%Possession40%

429Total Passes303

289Accurate Passes164

67%Pass Accuracy54%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

9Fouls9

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2