Exeter City 6–1 Colchester: Result & Stats

Exeter City

FT

6 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Colchester

M. Jay 90+5', 20'

R. Bowman 90+3', 71', 57'

J. Randall 53'

M. Folivi 73'

11/24/2020

League Two · Round 14St James Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Exeter City48%

×Draw27%

Colchester25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Exeter CityExpected goals in this matchColchester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.96

Exeter City

1.43

Colchester

0.96

Exeter City creates 49% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 159 away

1.53

creates per match

0.96

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Exeter City

1.53

Colchester

0.96

allows per match

Exeter City

0.96

Colchester

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Exeter City+0.00on par

Colchester+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Colchester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw

75%

Exeter City or Colchester

73%

Draw or Colchester

52%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+

23%

Colchester wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals

76%

Exeter City 2+ goals

42%

Exeter City 3+ goals

17%

Colchester 1+ goals

62%

Colchester 2+ goals

25%

Colchester 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)

65%

Colchester (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.96 · 98 matches

Colchester away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.33 · 159 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.53 + Colchester defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.43

Colchester attack 0.96 + Exeter City defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Exeter City scores more

48%

level

27%

Colchester scores more

25%

Exeter City at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

M. Jay

Exeter City · F

9.6

Match Events

20'

M. Jay↳ J. Randall

46'

C. Harriott← M. Welch-Hayes

46'

L. Norris← K. Poku

46'

M. Folivi← N. Chilvers

53'

J. Randall↳ M. Jay

56'

M. Scarlett← C. Senior

57'

R. Bowman↳ J. Sparkes

61'

Michael Folivi

71'

R. Bowman↳ J. Randall

73'

A. Hartridge← J. Randall

73'

M. Folivi↳ C. Harriott

74'

J. Bohui← J. Brown

81'

Ben Stevenson

81'

N. Atangana← A. Collins

82'

N. Ajose← R. Williams

90+3'

R. Bowman

90+5'

M. Jay

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ExeterColchester

Overview

53%Possession47%

27Total Shots8

12Corners3

8Fouls8

Shots

27Total Shots8

9On Target3

13Off Target3

5Blocked2

22Inside Box5

5Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

417Total Passes370

289Accurate Passes231

69%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls8

0Yellow Cards2

4Offsides0