Colchester 1–2 Exeter City: Result & Stats

Colchester

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Exeter City

A. Oteh 66'

B. Seymour 64'

R. Willmott 27'

2/23/2021

League Two · Round 31JobServe Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Colchester39%

×Draw27%

Exeter City35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColchesterExpected goals in this matchExeter City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.23

Colchester

1.32

Exeter City

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 161 home / 97 away

1.32

creates per match

1.35

1.10

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Colchester

1.32

Exeter City

1.35

allows per match

Colchester

1.10

Exeter City

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colchester+0.00on par

Exeter City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Exeter City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Colchester or draw

65%

Colchester or Exeter City

73%

Draw or Exeter City

61%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+

17%

Exeter City wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals

73%

Colchester 2+ goals

38%

Colchester 3+ goals

15%

Exeter City 1+ goals

71%

Exeter City 2+ goals

35%

Exeter City 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)

53%

Exeter City (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 161 matches

Exeter City away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.32 + Exeter City defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.32

Exeter City attack 1.35 + Colchester defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Colchester scores more

39%

level

27%

Exeter City scores more

35%

Colchester at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

J. Key

Exeter City · D

7.5

Match Events

9'

Tom Parkes

27'

R. Willmott↳ J. Key

46'

J. Brown← C. Harriott

46'

A. Oteh← M. Folivi

64'

B. Seymour↳ J. Key

66'

A. Oteh↳ N. Chilvers

72'

C. Senior← B. Sarpong-Wiredu

77'

J. Caprice← J. Key

77'

N. Atangana← M. Jay

78'

K. Poku← N. Chilvers

78'

J. Sparkes← R. Willmott

81'

Lewis Page

85'

A. Fisher← J. Randall

90+1'

H. Sayer← A. Oteh

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ColchesterExeter

Overview

44%Possession56%

6Total Shots12

6Corners6

14Fouls10

Shots

6Total Shots12

1On Target4

3Off Target3

2Blocked5

5Inside Box9

1Outside Box3

Passing

44%Possession56%

354Total Passes456

199Accurate Passes292

56%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

14Fouls10

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2