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Exeter City vs Colchester — League Two 2018

Exeter City
Exeter City
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Colchester
Colchester
1/25/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 29St James Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Exeter City48%
×Draw27%
Colchester25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Exeter City
1.43
Colchester
0.96

Exeter City creates 49% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 159 away

creates per match

Exeter City
1.53
Colchester
0.96

allows per match

Exeter City
0.96
Colchester
1.33

finishing

Exeter City+0.00on par
Colchester+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Colchester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw
75%
Exeter City or Colchester
73%
Draw or Colchester
52%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+
23%
Colchester wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals
76%
Exeter City 2+ goals
42%
Exeter City 3+ goals
17%
Colchester 1+ goals
62%
Colchester 2+ goals
25%
Colchester 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)
65%
Colchester (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.96 · 98 matches

Colchester away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.33 · 159 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.53 + Colchester defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.43

Colchester attack 0.96 + Exeter City defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Exeter City scores more
48%
level
27%
Colchester scores more
25%

Exeter City at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Exeter City 0–0 Colchester

Exeter City and Colchester drew 0-0 in League Two on January 25, 2020.

The match was played at St James Park in Exeter, Devon.