Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar — Eredivisie 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 14+ matches
Excelsior36%
AZ Alkmaar41%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 24 home / 14 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over62
- Under38
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes64
- No36
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Excelsior ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Excelsior at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.66 · 24 matches
AZ Alkmaar away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.65 · 14 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Excelsior attack 1.43 + AZ Alkmaar defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.54
AZ Alkmaar attack 1.67 + Excelsior defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.67
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
AZ Alkmaar at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "AZ Alkmaar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Ajax
PSV Eindhoven
FeyenoordAZ Alkmaar
Vitesse
Utrecht
Heracles
Groningen
ADO Den Haag
Willem II
Heerenveen
VVV Venlo
PEC Zwolle
Emmen
Fortuna SittardExcelsior
De Graafschap
NAC BredaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Excelsior host AZ Alkmaar on Saturday, 4 November 2023 at 17:45. The match is part of the Eredivisie 2018/2019 season.
Eredivisie: Excelsior 1–1 AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar drew 1-1 in Eredivisie on November 4, 2023.
Goals: M. Lahdo (72'), C. Sandra (90+1').
AZ Alkmaar controlled possession (51%) and registered 11 shots to 15.
The match was played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion in Rotterdam.