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AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior — Friendlies Clubs 2026

AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar
FT
8 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Excelsior
Excelsior
R. Bazoer 85'
L. Zeefuik 81', 67'
E. Poku 57', 37'
P. Koopmeiners 27'
M. van Brederode 7' (pen)
I. Sadiq 1'
7/13/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

AZ Alkmaar60%
×Draw20%
Excelsior20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AZ Alkmaar
2.31
Excelsior
1.28

AZ Alkmaar creates 80% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

creates per match

AZ Alkmaar
2.44
Excelsior
1.45

allows per match

AZ Alkmaar
1.11
Excelsior
2.18

finishing

AZ Alkmaar+0.00on par
Excelsior+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AZ Alkmaar ↓

Excelsior →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

AZ Alkmaar or draw
80%
AZ Alkmaar or Excelsior
80%
Draw or Excelsior
40%

Winning margin

AZ Alkmaar wins by 2+
38%
Excelsior wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

AZ Alkmaar 1+ goals
90%
AZ Alkmaar 2+ goals
67%
AZ Alkmaar 3+ goals
40%
Excelsior 1+ goals
72%
Excelsior 2+ goals
37%
Excelsior 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

AZ Alkmaar (draw refunded)
75%
Excelsior (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AZ Alkmaar at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Excelsior away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AZ Alkmaar attack 2.44 + Excelsior defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.31

Excelsior attack 1.45 + AZ Alkmaar defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

AZ Alkmaar scores more
60%
level
20%
Excelsior scores more
20%

AZ Alkmaar at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "AZ Alkmaar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
I. Sadiq
7'
M. van BrederodePenalty
27'
P. Koopmeiners
37'
E. Poku
46'
S. Middendorp← S. Middendorp
46'
J. Eijgenraam← C. Hatenboer
46'
G. Cairo← G. Cairo
57'
E. Poku
62'
M. van Duinen← V. Zandbergen
62'
D. Huisman← R. Olivacce
62'
M. Luijendijk← M. Luijendijk
62'
N. Naujoks← J. Udenhout
62'
A. Zagre← R. El Meliani
62'
O. Uddenas← J. Donkor
62'
C. Widell← R. Omorowa
62'
P. Kuiper← M. Spenkelink
67'
L. Zeefuik
81'
L. Zeefuik
85'
R. Bazoer

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: AZ Alkmaar 8–0 Excelsior

AZ Alkmaar beat Excelsior 8-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 13, 2024.

Goals: I. Sadiq (1'), M. van Brederode (7' pen), P. Koopmeiners (27'), E. Poku (37', 57'), L. Zeefuik (67', 81'), R. Bazoer (85').

The match was played at TBC in TBC.