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Everton vs Leeds — Premier League 2026

Everton
Everton
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Leeds
Leeds
Raphinha 79'
11/28/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Goodison Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Everton45%
×Draw25%
Leeds30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Everton
1.56
Leeds
1.23

Everton creates 27% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 26 away

creates per match

Everton
1.29
Leeds
1.15

allows per match

Everton
1.31
Leeds
1.83

finishing

Everton-0.13scores less
Leeds-0.15scores less

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton ↓

Leeds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Everton or draw
70%
Everton or Leeds
75%
Draw or Leeds
55%

Winning margin

Everton wins by 2+
23%
Leeds wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Everton 1+ goals
79%
Everton 2+ goals
46%
Everton 3+ goals
21%
Leeds 1+ goals
71%
Leeds 2+ goals
35%
Leeds 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Everton (draw refunded)
60%
Leeds (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.31 · 25 matches

Leeds away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.83 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton attack 1.29 + Leeds defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.56

Leeds attack 1.15 + Everton defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Everton scores more
45%
level
25%
Leeds scores more
30%

Everton at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Everton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
I. MeslierLeedsLeeds · G
8.6

Match Events

24'
James RodríguezPenalty confirmed
26'
Luke Ayling
61'
F. Delph← T. Davies
67'
André Gomes← A. Iwobi
79'
Raphinha↳ J. Harrison
82'
Bernard← M. Holgate
85'
I. Poveda-Ocampo← Raphinha
89'
Hélder Costa← J. Harrison
90'
Allan
90'
Liam Cooper
90+1'
Rodrigo← P. Bamford

Possession

41%Everton

Shots

15Everton

Pass accuracy

48%Everton

Statistics

EvertonLeeds
Overview
41%Possession59%
15Total Shots23
4Corners2
8Fouls14
Shots
15Total Shots23
8On Target6
6Off Target11
1Blocked6
10Inside Box17
5Outside Box6
Passing
41%Possession59%
391Total Passes542
307Accurate Passes453
79%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
5Saves8
Discipline
8Fouls14
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides6

Premier League: Everton 0–1 Leeds

Leeds beat Everton 1-0 in Premier League on November 28, 2020.

Goals: Raphinha (79').

Leeds controlled possession (59%) and registered 23 shots to 15.

The match was played at Goodison Park in Liverpool.