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Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena — Primera División 2018

Everton de Vina
Everton de Vina
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
D. La Serena
D. La Serena
P. Sánchez 84'
R. Echeverría 70' (pen)
I. Sosa 58'
Z. López 37' (OG)
8/27/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 23Estadio Sausalito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Everton de Vina53%
×Draw24%
D. La Serena23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Everton de Vina
1.75
D. La Serena
1.06

Everton de Vina creates 65% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Everton de Vina
1.57
D. La Serena
1.05

allows per match

Everton de Vina
1.06
D. La Serena
1.94

finishing

Everton de Vina-0.28scores less
D. La Serena-0.48scores less

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton de Vina ↓

D. La Serena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Everton de Vina or draw
77%
Everton de Vina or D. La Serena
76%
Draw or D. La Serena
47%

Winning margin

Everton de Vina wins by 2+
30%
D. La Serena wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Everton de Vina 1+ goals
83%
Everton de Vina 2+ goals
52%
Everton de Vina 3+ goals
25%
D. La Serena 1+ goals
65%
D. La Serena 2+ goals
29%
D. La Serena 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Everton de Vina (draw refunded)
70%
D. La Serena (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton de Vina at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.06 · 7 matches

D. La Serena away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.94 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton de Vina attack 1.57 + D. La Serena defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.75

D. La Serena attack 1.05 + Everton de Vina defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Everton de Vina scores more
53%
level
24%
D. La Serena scores more
23%

Everton de Vina at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Everton de Vina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
B. CarvalloEverton de VinaEverton de Vina · F
8.3

Match Events

7'
Julio Barroso
37'
Z. LópezOwn goal
45'
Benjamín Berríos
46'
F. Campos← R. Díaz
46'
I. Sosa← M. Campos Lopez
46'
M. Guerrero← J. Fuentealba
50'
Rodrigo EcheverríaGoal cancelled
58'
Ismael Sosa
58'
I. Sosa↳ B. Carvallo
60'
P. Sánchez← S. Sosa
60'
F. Andrada← J. Cavallaro
61'
M. Ramirez← J. Carreño
69'
Felipe CamposPenalty cancelled
70'
R. EcheverríaPenalty
75'
C. Medina← B. Berríos
77'
A. Ibacache← D. Oyarzún
81'
R. Paredes← A. Cáceres
84'
P. Sánchez↳ B. Carvallo
88'
Santiago Dittborn
89'
Humberto Suazo

Possession

54%Everton

Shots

22Everton

Pass accuracy

52%Everton

Statistics

EvertonD.
Overview
54%Possession46%
22Total Shots9
1Corners4
12Fouls15
Shots
22Total Shots9
8On Target0
11Off Target7
3Blocked2
15Inside Box5
7Outside Box4
Passing
54%Possession46%
426Total Passes360
328Accurate Passes253
77%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
0Saves5
Discipline
12Fouls15
3Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena

Everton de Vina beat D. La Serena 4-0 in Primera División on August 27, 2022.

Goals: Z. López (37' o.g.), I. Sosa (58'), R. Echeverría (70' pen), P. Sánchez (84').

Everton de Vina controlled possession (54%) and registered 22 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Sausalito in Viña del Mar.