D. La Serena 1–3 Everton de Vina: Result & Stats

D. La Serena

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Everton de Vina

R. Paredes 5'

L. Di Yorio 86', 51'

R. Echeverría 69'

4/1/2022

Primera División · Round 8Estadio La Portada de La Serena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

D. La Serena44%

×Draw25%

Everton de Vina31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

D. La SerenaExpected goals in this matchEverton de Vina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.23

D. La Serena

1.51

Everton de Vina

1.23

D. La Serena creates 23% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

1.41

creates per match

0.97

1.48

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

D. La Serena

1.41

Everton de Vina

0.97

allows per match

D. La Serena

1.48

Everton de Vina

1.61

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

D. La Serena-0.12scores less

Everton de Vina-0.06on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. La Serena ↓

Everton de Vina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

D. La Serena or draw

69%

D. La Serena or Everton de Vina

75%

Draw or Everton de Vina

56%

Winning margin

D. La Serena wins by 2+

22%

Everton de Vina wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

D. La Serena 1+ goals

78%

D. La Serena 2+ goals

44%

D. La Serena 3+ goals

19%

Everton de Vina 1+ goals

71%

Everton de Vina 2+ goals

35%

Everton de Vina 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

D. La Serena (draw refunded)

59%

Everton de Vina (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. La Serena at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.48 · 7 matches

Everton de Vina away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.61 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. La Serena attack 1.41 + Everton de Vina defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.51

Everton de Vina attack 0.97 + D. La Serena defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

D. La Serena scores more

44%

level

25%

Everton de Vina scores more

31%

D. La Serena at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "D. La Serena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

L. Di Yorio

Everton de Vina · F

8.2

Match Events

5'

13'

14'

40'

46'

46'

51'

L. Di Yorio↳ J. Cuevas

64'

Benjamín Berríos

65'

A. Sánchez← Á. Madrid

68'

Richard Paredes

69'

R. Echeverría↳ I. Sosa

74'

J. Cavallaro← R. Paredes

74'

J. Fuentealba← M. Guerrero

74'

G. Moya← B. Berríos

80'

M. Estigarribia← C. Erbes

80'

A. Cáceres← J. Buss

82'

C. Valenzuela← I. Sosa

82'

M. Campos Lopez← J. Cuevas

86'

L. Di Yorio↳ M. Campos Lopez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

D.Everton

Overview

43%Possession57%

9Total Shots15

2Corners10

16Fouls16

Shots

9Total Shots15

1On Target7

6Off Target6

2Blocked2

6Inside Box11

3Outside Box4

Passing

43%Possession57%

320Total Passes415

198Accurate Passes306

62%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

16Fouls16

4Yellow Cards2

0Offsides3