D. La Serena 2–1 Everton de Vina: Result & Stats

D. La Serena

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Everton de Vina

S. Gallegos 64'

J. Vargas 45' (pen)

J. Moya 37'

4/13/2025

Primera División · Round 7Estadio La Portada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

D. La Serena44%

×Draw25%

Everton de Vina31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

D. La SerenaExpected goals in this matchEverton de Vina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.23

D. La Serena

1.51

Everton de Vina

1.23

D. La Serena creates 23% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

1.41

creates per match

0.97

1.48

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

D. La Serena

1.41

Everton de Vina

0.97

allows per match

D. La Serena

1.48

Everton de Vina

1.61

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

D. La Serena-0.12scores less

Everton de Vina-0.06on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. La Serena ↓

Everton de Vina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

D. La Serena or draw

69%

D. La Serena or Everton de Vina

75%

Draw or Everton de Vina

56%

Winning margin

D. La Serena wins by 2+

22%

Everton de Vina wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

D. La Serena 1+ goals

78%

D. La Serena 2+ goals

44%

D. La Serena 3+ goals

19%

Everton de Vina 1+ goals

71%

Everton de Vina 2+ goals

35%

Everton de Vina 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

D. La Serena (draw refunded)

59%

Everton de Vina (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. La Serena at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.48 · 7 matches

Everton de Vina away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.61 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. La Serena attack 1.41 + Everton de Vina defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.51

Everton de Vina attack 0.97 + D. La Serena defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

D. La Serena scores more

44%

level

25%

Everton de Vina scores more

31%

D. La Serena at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "D. La Serena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Vargas

D. La Serena · M

7.9

Match Events

30'

34'

37'

41'

45+4'

Felipe ChamorroPenalty confirmed

45'

J. VargasPenalty

53'

J. Cruz← J. Moya

64'

S. Gallegos↳ A. Henriquez

65'

Diego Hernandez← R. Pineiro

67'

Lucas Alarcón

70'

Enrique Serje

72'

M. Rivera← S. Diaz

72'

L. Ovando← Jhonatan Kauan

75'

H. Magallanes← L. Soto

75'

E. M. Ramos Aviles← A. Ibacache

75'

C. Palacios← I. Ramirez

78'

Hugo Magallanes

80'

N. Ferreyra← F. Chamorro

80'

E. Moreira← A. Henriquez

86'

Jeisson Vargas

89'

M. Pinto← J. Vargas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

D.Everton

Overview

44%Possession56%

13Total Shots17

3Corners4

14Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots17

5On Target4

6Off Target10

2Blocked3

9Inside Box11

4Outside Box6

Passing

44%Possession56%

305Total Passes383

227Accurate Passes309

74%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls10

4Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1

Primera División: D. La Serena 2–1 Everton de Vina

D. La Serena beat Everton de Vina 2-1 in Primera División on April 13, 2025.

Goals: J. Moya (37'), J. Vargas (45' pen), S. Gallegos (64').

Everton de Vina controlled possession (56%) and registered 17 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio La Portada in La Serena.

D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina — Primera División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: D. La Serena 2–1 Everton de Vina