Everton de Vina 0–1 Colo Colo: Result & Stats

Everton de Vina

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Colo Colo

J. Correa 73'

8/25/2024

Primera División · Round 21Estadio Sausalito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Everton de Vina43%

×Draw27%

Colo Colo30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Everton de VinaExpected goals in this matchColo Colo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.07

Everton de Vina

1.33

Colo Colo

1.07

Everton de Vina creates 24% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

1.57

creates per match

1.08

1.06

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Everton de Vina

1.57

Colo Colo

1.08

allows per match

Everton de Vina

1.06

Colo Colo

1.09

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

Everton de Vina-0.28scores less

Colo Colo+0.22scores more

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton de Vina ↓

Colo Colo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Everton de Vina or draw

70%

Everton de Vina or Colo Colo

73%

Draw or Colo Colo

57%

Winning margin

Everton de Vina wins by 2+

20%

Colo Colo wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Everton de Vina 1+ goals

74%

Everton de Vina 2+ goals

38%

Everton de Vina 3+ goals

15%

Colo Colo 1+ goals

66%

Colo Colo 2+ goals

29%

Colo Colo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Everton de Vina (draw refunded)

59%

Colo Colo (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton de Vina at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.06 · 7 matches

Colo Colo away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.09 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton de Vina attack 1.57 + Colo Colo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.33

Colo Colo attack 1.08 + Everton de Vina defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Everton de Vina scores more

43%

level

27%

Colo Colo scores more

30%

Everton de Vina at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Everton de Vina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

J. Correa

Colo Colo · F

8.0

Match Events

39'

Diego OyarzúnCard upgrade

40'

Diego Oyarzún

45'

Erick Wiemberg

46'

L. Cepeda← L. Soto

46'

D. Gutiérrez← E. Wiemberg

55'

M. Bolados← M. Isla

55'

G. Castellani← E. Pavez

65'

J. Cruz← O. Fernández

70'

Gonzalo Castellani

73'

J. Correa↳ M. Bolados

77'

Gonzalo Castellani

77'

Gonzalo Castellani

77'

F. Martínez← F. Villagrán

80'

Javier Correa

80'

V. Pizarro← J. Correa

87'

E. Ramos← A. Ibacache

87'

J. dos Santos← R. Contreras

90+1'

Tomás Astaburuaga

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EvertonColo

Overview

33%Possession67%

6Total Shots14

5Corners5

6Fouls9

Shots

6Total Shots14

2On Target4

4Off Target6

0Blocked4

2Inside Box10

4Outside Box4

Passing

33%Possession67%

245Total Passes515

154Accurate Passes404

63%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

6Fouls9

1Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards1

0Offsides1