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Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina — Primera División 2018

Colo Colo
Colo Colo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Everton de Vina
Everton de Vina
L. Cepeda 73', 43' (pen)
3/9/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 4Estadio Monumental David Arellano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Colo Colo60%
×Draw22%
Everton de Vina18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colo Colo
1.93
Everton de Vina
0.95

Colo Colo creates 103% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

creates per match

Colo Colo
2.25
Everton de Vina
0.97

allows per match

Colo Colo
0.94
Everton de Vina
1.61

finishing

Colo Colo-0.12scores less
Everton de Vina-0.06on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colo Colo ↓

Everton de Vina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Colo Colo or draw
82%
Colo Colo or Everton de Vina
78%
Draw or Everton de Vina
40%

Winning margin

Colo Colo wins by 2+
36%
Everton de Vina wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Colo Colo 1+ goals
85%
Colo Colo 2+ goals
57%
Colo Colo 3+ goals
30%
Everton de Vina 1+ goals
61%
Everton de Vina 2+ goals
25%
Everton de Vina 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Colo Colo (draw refunded)
77%
Everton de Vina (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colo Colo at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.94 · 8 matches

Everton de Vina away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.61 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colo Colo attack 2.25 + Everton de Vina defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.93

Everton de Vina attack 0.97 + Colo Colo defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Colo Colo scores more
60%
level
22%
Everton de Vina scores more
18%

Colo Colo at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Colo Colo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32
L. CepedaColo ColoColo Colo
9.7

Match Events

37'
Esteban Pavez
39'
Javier Correa
40'
Javier CorreaPenalty confirmed
43'
L. CepedaPenalty
45+5'
Álvaro Madrid
46'
Salomón Rodríguez
46'
M. Campos← E. M. Ramos Aviles
50'
Javier CorreaGoal cancelled
59'
C. Zavala← S. Rodriguez
65'
J. Cruz← Diego Hernandez
69'
Sebastián Vegas
71'
V. Mendez← C. Aquino
71'
T. Alarcon← V. Pizarro
73'
L. Cepeda↳ J. Correa
76'
Rodrigo Piñeiro
80'
E. Amor← S. Vegas
80'
F. Marchant← E. Pavez
90'
Víctor Felipe Méndez
90+1'
E. C. Serje Orozco← A. Madrid

Possession

58%Colo

Shots

21Colo

Pass accuracy

52%Colo

Statistics

ColoEverton
Overview
58%Possession42%
21Total Shots10
7Corners2
11Fouls17
Shots
21Total Shots10
7On Target1
9Off Target6
5Blocked3
16Inside Box3
5Outside Box7
Passing
58%Possession42%
441Total Passes320
383Accurate Passes256
87%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
11Fouls17
5Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

Primera División: Colo Colo 2–0 Everton de Vina

Colo Colo beat Everton de Vina 2-0 in Primera División on March 9, 2025.

Goals: L. Cepeda (43' pen, 73').

Colo Colo controlled possession (58%) and registered 21 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental David Arellano in Santiago de Chile.