Colo Colo 4–1 Everton de Vina: Result & Stats

Colo Colo

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Everton de Vina

L. Cepeda 90+2'

C. Palacios 69'

É. Wiemberg 67'

S. Pereira 3' (OG)

R. Contreras 8'

3/30/2024

Primera División · Round 6Estadio Monumental David Arellano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Colo Colo60%

×Draw22%

Everton de Vina18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Colo ColoExpected goals in this matchEverton de Vina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

0.95

Colo Colo

1.93

Everton de Vina

0.95

Colo Colo creates 103% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

2.25

creates per match

0.97

0.94

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Colo Colo

2.25

Everton de Vina

0.97

allows per match

Colo Colo

0.94

Everton de Vina

1.61

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Colo Colo-0.12scores less

Everton de Vina-0.06on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colo Colo ↓

Everton de Vina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Colo Colo or draw

82%

Colo Colo or Everton de Vina

78%

Draw or Everton de Vina

40%

Winning margin

Colo Colo wins by 2+

36%

Everton de Vina wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Colo Colo 1+ goals

85%

Colo Colo 2+ goals

57%

Colo Colo 3+ goals

30%

Everton de Vina 1+ goals

61%

Everton de Vina 2+ goals

25%

Everton de Vina 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Colo Colo (draw refunded)

77%

Everton de Vina (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colo Colo at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.94 · 8 matches

Everton de Vina away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.61 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colo Colo attack 2.25 + Everton de Vina defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.93

Everton de Vina attack 0.97 + Colo Colo defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Colo Colo scores more

60%

level

22%

Everton de Vina scores more

18%

Colo Colo at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Colo Colo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

L. Gil

Colo Colo · M

8.6

Match Events

3'

S. PereiraOwn goal

8'

R. Contreras↳ B. Martínez

12'

Ignacio González

12'

Ignacio GonzálezCard upgrade

16'

C. González← M. Campos

26'

26'

45+8'

45+9'

45'

55'

F. Martínez← K. Méndez

57'

Cristian Riquelme

57'

Cristian Riquelme

61'

L. Cepeda← M. Bolados

66'

A. Ríos← F. Campos

66'

M. Wassenne← B. Martínez

67'

É. Wiemberg↳ L. Cepeda

69'

C. Palacios↳ L. Gil

75'

J. Rojas← Ó. Opazo

75'

D. Gutiérrez← C. Palacios

81'

V. Pizarro← A. Saldivia

82'

D. Pizarro← G. Paiva

86'

Jeyson Rojas

90+2'

L. Cepeda

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ColoEverton

Overview

73%Possession27%

30Total Shots5

3.62Expected Goals (xG)0.59

14Corners5

8Fouls11

Shots

30Total Shots5

9On Target3

9Off Target0

12Blocked2

17Inside Box3

13Outside Box2

Passing

73%Possession27%

616Total Passes221

557Accurate Passes158

90%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls11

2Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards2

1Offsides1