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Ethnikos Achna vs Pafos — 1. Division 2019

Ethnikos Achna
Ethnikos Achna
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Pafos
Pafos
11/11/20231. Division1. Division · Round 11Stadio Dasaki Achnas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Ethnikos Achna32%
×Draw27%
Pafos41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ethnikos Achna
1.14
Pafos
1.32

Pafos creates 16% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 120 away

creates per match

Ethnikos Achna
1.25
Pafos
1.32

allows per match

Ethnikos Achna
1.32
Pafos
1.03

finishing

Ethnikos Achna+0.00on par
Pafos+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ethnikos Achna ↓

Pafos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ethnikos Achna or draw
59%
Ethnikos Achna or Pafos
73%
Draw or Pafos
68%

Winning margin

Ethnikos Achna wins by 2+
13%
Pafos wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Ethnikos Achna 1+ goals
68%
Ethnikos Achna 2+ goals
32%
Ethnikos Achna 3+ goals
11%
Pafos 1+ goals
73%
Pafos 2+ goals
38%
Pafos 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Ethnikos Achna (draw refunded)
44%
Pafos (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ethnikos Achna at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.32 · 100 matches

Pafos away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.03 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ethnikos Achna attack 1.25 + Pafos defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.14

Pafos attack 1.32 + Ethnikos Achna defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ethnikos Achna scores more
32%
level
27%
Pafos scores more
41%

Pafos at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pafos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Ethnikos Achna 1–4 Pafos

Pafos beat Ethnikos Achna 4-1 in 1. Division on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Dasaki Achnas in Dasaki Achnas.