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Ethnikos Achna vs Enosis — Cup 2019

Ethnikos Achna
Ethnikos Achna
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Enosis
Enosisadvanced
N. Andereggen 37'
Z. Museliani 84'
A. Ella 8'
1/7/2026CupCup · Round of 16Ethnikos Achnas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Ethnikos Achna56%
×Draw22%
Enosis22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ethnikos Achna
2.00
Enosis
1.19

Ethnikos Achna creates 68% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Ethnikos Achna
2.00
Enosis
1.38

allows per match

Ethnikos Achna
1.00
Enosis
2.00

finishing

Ethnikos Achna+0.00on par
Enosis+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ethnikos Achna ↓

Enosis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Ethnikos Achna or draw
78%
Ethnikos Achna or Enosis
78%
Draw or Enosis
44%

Winning margin

Ethnikos Achna wins by 2+
33%
Enosis wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ethnikos Achna 1+ goals
86%
Ethnikos Achna 2+ goals
59%
Ethnikos Achna 3+ goals
32%
Enosis 1+ goals
70%
Enosis 2+ goals
33%
Enosis 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ethnikos Achna (draw refunded)
71%
Enosis (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ethnikos Achna at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Enosis away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ethnikos Achna attack 2.00 + Enosis defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Enosis attack 1.38 + Ethnikos Achna defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ethnikos Achna scores more
56%
level
22%
Enosis scores more
22%

Ethnikos Achna at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ethnikos Achna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
A. Ella
37'
N. Andereggen
84'
Z. Museliani
90+6'
M. Simonovski
Ethnikos
Enosis
David Badia
Manager: David Badia
D. Čanadi
Manager: D. Čanadi

Cup: Ethnikos Achna 1–2 Enosis

Enosis beat Ethnikos Achna 2-1 in Cup on January 7, 2026.

Goals: A. Ella (8'), N. Andereggen (37'), Z. Museliani (84').

The match was played at Ethnikos Achnas in Achna.