Ethnikos Achna 5–1 Enosis: Result & Stats

Ethnikos Achna

FT

5 – 1

HT: 4 – 1

Enosis

J. Cejas 80'

N. Andereggen 45', 45'

P. Psaltis 45'

G. Papageorgiou 34'

Z. Museliani 4' (pen)

10/25/2025

1. Division · Round 8Ethnikos Achnas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Ethnikos Achna49%

×Draw25%

Enosis25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ethnikos AchnaExpected goals in this matchEnosis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.06

Ethnikos Achna

1.58

Enosis

1.06

Ethnikos Achna creates 49% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 85 away

1.25

creates per match

0.80

1.32

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Ethnikos Achna

1.25

Enosis

0.80

allows per match

Ethnikos Achna

1.32

Enosis

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ethnikos Achna+0.00on par

Enosis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ethnikos Achna ↓

Enosis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Ethnikos Achna or draw

75%

Ethnikos Achna or Enosis

75%

Draw or Enosis

51%

Winning margin

Ethnikos Achna wins by 2+

26%

Enosis wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ethnikos Achna 1+ goals

79%

Ethnikos Achna 2+ goals

47%

Ethnikos Achna 3+ goals

21%

Enosis 1+ goals

65%

Enosis 2+ goals

29%

Enosis 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ethnikos Achna (draw refunded)

66%

Enosis (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ethnikos Achna at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.32 · 100 matches

Enosis away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.92 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ethnikos Achna attack 1.25 + Enosis defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.58

Enosis attack 0.80 + Ethnikos Achna defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ethnikos Achna scores more

49%

level

25%

Enosis scores more

25%

Ethnikos Achna at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ethnikos Achna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

Z. MuselianiPenalty

21'

25'

27'

30'

34'

45'

45'

45'

55'

55'

61'

61'

M. Maia← M. Kane

69'

A. Katsiaris← E. Silva

69'

E. Balua← Z. Museliani

75'

Emanuel Šakić

77'

Rodriguinho← N. Andereggen

77'

M. Pechlivanis← Breno Almeida

80'

J. Cejas

82'

M. Dimitriou← P. Psaltis

85'

André Jordy Ella

Ethnikos3-5-2

Enosis4-1-3-2

90

Ella

7

⚽

▼

Museliani

94

Souza

8

▼

Canadi

11

▼

Kurez

6

▼

Silva

5

Okeke

4

Ioannou

33

▼

66

1

38

37

12

80

98

▼

Almeida

36

▼

Kane

20

▼

Machado

27

Confais

24

⚽

▼

Psaltis

33

⚽2

▼

Anderegge

30

⚽

Papageorg

Manager: David Badia

61'▲J. Cejas←▼L. Machado

61'▲M. Maia←▼M. Kane

77'▲Rodriguinho←▼N. Andereggen

77'▲M. Pechlivanis←▼Breno Almeida

82'▲M. Dimitriou←▼P. Psaltis

Ethnikos Achna substitutes

40Flores89Baig5Felipe7Cejas8Maia9Rodriguinho10Pechlivanis11Marinescu14Dimitriou21Kravchuk44Giallouros47Perdios

Manager: D. Čanadi

25'▲Lohan←▼S. Risvanis

55'▲J. Kazan←▼G. Kurez

55'▲M. Djira←▼M. Canadi

69'▲A. Katsiaris←▼E. Silva

69'▲E. Balua←▼Z. Museliani

Enosis substitutes

21Kuster31Lazar13Lohan18Katsiaris19Balua22Solomou25Khaled27Kazan44Djira76Salkovic77Kyzas

Match Recap: Ethnikos Achna vs Enosis

Ethnikos Achna beat Enosis 5-1 in 1. Division on October 25, 2025.

Goals: Z. Museliani (4' pen), G. Papageorgiou (34'), N. Andereggen (45', 45'), P. Psaltis (45'), J. Cejas (80').

The match was played at Ethnikos Achnas in Achna.

Ethnikos Achna vs Enosis — 1. Division 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ethnikos Achna vs Enosis