Enosis 4–2 Ethnikos Achna: Result & Stats

Enosis

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Ethnikos Achna

D. Solomou 68'

Z. Museliani 58'

S. Thandi 44'

M. Canadi 26'

N. Andereggen 35'

J. Bonetto 12'

5/11/2025

1. Division · Relegation Round - 7Stadio Tasos Markou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Enosis40%

×Draw25%

Ethnikos Achna35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EnosisExpected goals in this matchEthnikos Achna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.39

Enosis

1.49

Ethnikos Achna

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

0.92

creates per match

1.36

1.41

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Enosis

0.92

Ethnikos Achna

1.36

allows per match

Enosis

1.41

Ethnikos Achna

2.06

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

Enosis+0.22scores more

Ethnikos Achna-0.16scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enosis ↓

Ethnikos Achna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Enosis or draw

65%

Enosis or Ethnikos Achna

75%

Draw or Ethnikos Achna

60%

Winning margin

Enosis wins by 2+

19%

Ethnikos Achna wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Enosis 1+ goals

77%

Enosis 2+ goals

44%

Enosis 3+ goals

19%

Ethnikos Achna 1+ goals

75%

Ethnikos Achna 2+ goals

40%

Ethnikos Achna 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Enosis (draw refunded)

53%

Ethnikos Achna (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enosis at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.41 · 7 matches

Ethnikos Achna away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.06 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enosis attack 0.92 + Ethnikos Achna defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.49

Ethnikos Achna attack 1.36 + Enosis defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Enosis scores more

40%

level

25%

Ethnikos Achna scores more

35%

Enosis at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Enosis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

M. Canadi

Enosis · M

8.3

Match Events

12'

26'

35'

42'

44'

45+2'

46'

D. Solomou← M. Charalambous

46'

Pablo González← P. Bahanack

46'

46'

56'

58'

64'

A. Christofi← M. Canadi

64'

N. Gotlieb← P. Janczukowicz

66'

N. Perdios← Breno

68'

D. Solomou

77'

Nicolas AndereggenMissed penalty

81'

M. Peratikos← G. Angelopoulos

89'

R. Hoogenhout← A. Christofi

90+9'

L. Kosma← N. Fliter

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EnosisEthnikos

Overview

44%Possession56%

11Total Shots9

1.32Expected Goals (xG)2.26

4Corners5

10Fouls16

Shots

11Total Shots9

6On Target4

3Off Target1

2Blocked4

9Inside Box6

2Outside Box3

Passing

44%Possession56%

255Total Passes431

203Accurate Passes360

80%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls16

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

2Offsides2