Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1–1 CSKA 1948: Result & Stats

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

CSKA 1948

2/18/2024

First League · Round 21Stadion Ivailo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Etar Veliko Tarnovo32%

×Draw28%

CSKA 194840%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Etar Veliko TarnovoExpected goals in this matchCSKA 1948

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.25

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

1.08

CSKA 1948

1.25

CSKA 1948 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 105 away

1.08

creates per match

1.22

1.29

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

1.08

CSKA 1948

1.22

allows per match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

1.29

CSKA 1948

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Etar Veliko Tarnovo+0.00on par

CSKA 1948+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etar Veliko Tarnovo ↓

CSKA 1948 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Etar Veliko Tarnovo or draw

60%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo or CSKA 1948

72%

Draw or CSKA 1948

68%

Winning margin

Etar Veliko Tarnovo wins by 2+

12%

CSKA 1948 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1+ goals

66%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2+ goals

29%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 3+ goals

10%

CSKA 1948 1+ goals

71%

CSKA 1948 2+ goals

36%

CSKA 1948 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Etar Veliko Tarnovo (draw refunded)

44%

CSKA 1948 (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etar Veliko Tarnovo at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.29 · 66 matches

CSKA 1948 away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.09 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo attack 1.08 + CSKA 1948 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.08

CSKA 1948 attack 1.22 + Etar Veliko Tarnovo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Etar Veliko Tarnovo scores more

32%

level

28%

CSKA 1948 scores more

40%

CSKA 1948 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "CSKA 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff