CSKA 1948 1–0 Etar Veliko Tarnovo: Result & Stats

CSKA 1948

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

8/21/2023

First League · Round 6Stadion Vitosha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

CSKA 194854%

×Draw25%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSKA 1948Expected goals in this matchEtar Veliko Tarnovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.92

CSKA 1948

1.61

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

0.92

CSKA 1948 creates 75% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 69 away

1.51

creates per match

0.81

1.03

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

CSKA 1948

1.51

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

0.81

allows per match

CSKA 1948

1.03

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSKA 1948+0.00on par

Etar Veliko Tarnovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 ↓

Etar Veliko Tarnovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 or draw

78%

CSKA 1948 or Etar Veliko Tarnovo

75%

Draw or Etar Veliko Tarnovo

46%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 wins by 2+

28%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 1+ goals

80%

CSKA 1948 2+ goals

48%

CSKA 1948 3+ goals

22%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1+ goals

60%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2+ goals

23%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 (draw refunded)

71%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.03 · 104 matches

Etar Veliko Tarnovo away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.72 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 attack 1.51 + Etar Veliko Tarnovo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.61

Etar Veliko Tarnovo attack 0.81 + CSKA 1948 defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

CSKA 1948 scores more

54%

level

25%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo scores more

22%

CSKA 1948 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "CSKA 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff